2013 MLB Draft Thread: Cubs with #2 pick

[KBisBack!]

Almora was a safe pick.

There is no such thing as a safe High School pick in baseball.

 

[chibears55]

i never understood HS picks, especially in the first round..

i would much rather grab a college senior in the first round who would/should be close to major league ready ..

 

[SilenceS]

There is no such thing as a safe High School pick in baseball.

Almora was considered one of the safest picks in the draft. No major flaws, but also not a monster upside. No pick is a safe pick in any draft, but he is considered a safer prospect then Baez or Soler. Just doesnt have near the ceiling. Im not a big fan of Almora and would like him to be packaged when the time comes, but I got a feeling Theo will hold on him close to his teet because he was his first pick as the Cubs GM.

 

[Boobaby1]

Almora was considered one of the safest picks in the draft. No major flaws, but also not a monster upside. No pick is a safe pick in any draft, but he is considered a safer prospect then Baez or Soler. Just doesnt have near the ceiling. Im not a big fan of Almora and would like him to be packaged when the time comes, but I got a feeling Theo will hold on him close to his teet because he was his first pick as the Cubs GM.

Almora, Garza, Baker, Clevenger, B-Jax, Vitters. Yeap, sounds like my fantasy team. All injured. Nothing like having Giancarlo Stanton, Weaver, Cueto, and Billingsley go down, and now B Anderson and Tulo are day-to-day. Whoa! LOL

 

[CSF77]

There is no such thing as a safe High School pick in baseball.

Woody did pretty good.

except for the injuries.

Baez another HS pick. Advancing pretty fast.

But in general HS picks take longer to get to the bigs. That part I don't like. Unless you are just drafting to stock pile trade chips then just get the hot shot prospects for better trade value.

Seeing how they picked Almora I believe that Tho will keep him. Not exciting but can hit for avg and has top end skills at CF. Very safe pick with little impact.

Still I didn't like the pick. They had B.Jaxx in AAA and Szczur at Daytona at the time. Jaxx looks like a 20 HR potential and Szczur looks like he could steal 50 bags in a season. Both are more dynamic players.

Almora just doesn't seem like a impact type at all.

 

[Jntg4]

Woody did pretty good.

except for the injuries.

Baez another HS pick. Advancing pretty fast.

But in general HS picks take longer to get to the bigs. That part I don't like. Unless you are just drafting to stock pile trade chips then just get the hot shot prospects for better trade value.

Seeing how they picked Almora I believe that Tho will keep him. Not exciting but can hit for avg and has top end skills at CF. Very safe pick with little impact.

Still I didn't like the pick. They had B.Jaxx in AAA and Szczur at Daytona at the time. Jaxx looks like a 20 HR potential and Szczur looks like he could steal 50 bags in a season. Both are more dynamic players.

Almora just doesn't seem like a impact type at all.

Almora may not have MVP potential, but he is a FAR superior prospect to either Brett Jackson or Matt Szczur.

 

[Rice Cube]

Almora may not have MVP potential, but he is a FAR superior prospect to either Brett Jackson or Matt Szczur.

We can temper that by saying that he is likely to be a better prospect, but the dude has to play in a full season of real games this year before we make any broad sweeping judgments, because baseball.

 

[SilenceS]

Almora may not have MVP potential, but he is a FAR superior prospect to either Brett Jackson or Matt Szczur.

He may be a superior prospect to Szczur, but not Jackson. Jackson was ranked in the 30's in top 100. Jackson has more of an impact bat than Almora. Almora just has plus defense and is an over achiever. I dont even think he is a big base stealer. Almora needs to prove himself before you consider him this huge prospect. His walk rate last year was not very good. He has to walk to be considered a big prospect to me. He doesnt have enough in that bat to make up for it. People like him and I am fine with that. I just personally dont see the wow in him. Soler and Baez make me go wow. Almora does not.

O and people can keep dissing on Matt Szczur but this is his current line.

88 AB's
.295 BA
.366 OBP
.409 SLG
.775 OPS
8 SB
2 CS
15 K's

He has started off very well this year and seems to be getting better. He keeps walking. Szczur could be playing center for us this year in September. I have said it from the beginning. Football players take longer to develop. Szczur never focused or really trained for baseball until he was drafted. He is a baby to the game. Im not saying he is a lock or anything but I have also thought people jump the gun on him to quick. Keith Law especially doesnt like him. He plays the game hard and has a ton of speed. Would look great at the top of the lineup. Also, lets hope he does something because it makes for more trade chips for a bigger fish.

 

[Rice Cube]

The issue with both Szczur and (especially now) Jackson is that they both have to hit and keep on hitting. The tools are there. Just have to get their butts on base.

Still have hopes for BJax, but damn...all those K's

 

[Jntg4]

He may be a superior prospect to Szczur, but not Jackson. Jackson was ranked in the 30's in top 100. Jackson has more of an impact bat than Almora. Almora just has plus defense and is an over achiever. I dont even think he is a big base stealer. Almora needs to prove himself before you consider him this huge prospect. His walk rate last year was not very good. He has to walk to be considered a big prospect to me. He doesnt have enough in that bat to make up for it. People like him and I am fine with that. I just personally dont see the wow in him. Soler and Baez make me go wow. Almora does not.

O and people can keep dissing on Matt Szczur but this is his current line.

88 AB's
.295 BA
.366 OBP
.409 SLG
.775 OPS
8 SB
2 CS
15 K's

He has started off very well this year and seems to be getting better. He keeps walking. Szczur could be playing center for us this year in September. I have said it from the beginning. Football players take longer to develop. Szczur never focused or really trained for baseball until he was drafted. He is a baby to the game. Im not saying he is a lock or anything but I have also thought people jump the gun on him to quick. Keith Law especially doesnt like him. He plays the game hard and has a ton of speed. Would look great at the top of the lineup. Also, lets hope he does something because it makes for more trade chips for a bigger fish.

I like all three, but even if Jackson was ranked in the top 30, where do you see him now? Notice he's still on the team lists but not the Top 100s, he's still eligible for them. Almora is part of a clear Top 3 in the system with Baez and Soler, though I rank him third in that group. Haven't seen anybody dispute this until you, almost unanimous.

 

[Rice Cube]

I think the prospects lists are weighted by age and level as well as ability. At the end of the day, until they PRODUCE, it's almost all subjective, but you can make an argument that Almora has the highest floor despite having a low ceiling. But then again I don't pay as much attention as I should, so I defer to you all.

 

[SilenceS]

I like all three, but even if Jackson was ranked in the top 30, where do you see him now? Notice he's still on the team lists but not the Top 100s, he's still eligible for them. Almora is part of a clear Top 3 in the system with Baez and Soler, though I rank him third in that group. Haven't seen anybody dispute this until you, almost unanimous.

I have never disputed he is top 3. I am disputing that he has proven anything yet. He is in the top 3 because he was a high pick. He is rated high because of his plus defense and they think he will hit. Rice Cubs is exactly on point about Almora. He has the highest floor, but the lowest ceiling. I know why he is a top 3 in the organization. He just has not played much so I dont know why a lot of people bank on him being a stud. O and Jackson fell back because of his K's. It doesnt take away that he was a top prospect for a couple of years. Almora could follow the same path or he may not. I hope all Cubs players succeed. I am just hoping people temper expectations of players. The internet puts a lot more pressure on these young kids then back of the day. Everybody is the next superstar according to the internet.

 

[SilenceS]

The issue with both Szczur and (especially now) Jackson is that they both have to hit and keep on hitting. The tools are there. Just have to get their butts on base.

Still have hopes for BJax, but damn...all those K's

BJax game is absolutely awesome, but he has to get control of the k's. He does that it would be a huge lift for the Cubs. When he puts the ball in play he is an extra base machine. He walks, can swipe bags, and probably could be a plus defender corner OF or an above average CF. He is an impact player. Lets hope he fixes that K problem. He has been hurt so he started off the season not great. Lets see him get healthy and progress. I would venture to guess we will see him in Wrigley again this year.

 

[KBisBack!]

I think the prospects lists are weighted by age and level as well as ability.

And part of that process is that the younger players have yet to 'fail' professionally.

Almora has a handful of games under his belt at rookie ball but is seen as a superior prospect to a player that has advanced all the way to the major leagues.

One of the big reasons I don't put much stock in prospect rankings or building around lottery tickets.

 

[Rice Cube]

And part of that process is that the younger players have yet to 'fail' professionally.

Almora has a handful of games under his belt at rookie ball but is seen as a superior prospect to a player that has advanced all the way to the major leagues.

One of the big reasons I don't put much stock in prospect rankings or building around lottery tickets.

You kind of have to at some point. SOMEONE is developing these players (read: Cardinals) and so you ask, what are they doing right? Then you try to do the same thing and hope to emulate the success. You can't just keep relying on someone else to do the dirty work for you.

 

[CSF77]

Like I said this team should be using the draft to build up trade assets vs building a team through...even though using the draft to acquire proven talent is a form of building.

The Cubs are a top 5 revenue market and if they have a good system in place that produces quality talent for using as trade barter this team could become a power house.

The whole gambling the future on a dice roll is unsettling for a big player like this.


Regarding Almora...not a sexy pick per say which is why I believe he will be retained. But I would say the same about Jeter. Not a flashy type. Not having big power or speed.

But a HoF for sure. 3000 hits.

So he could turn out fine with his tool set.

 

[Rice Cube]

Part of the reason you build from within is also because other teams building from within are locking up their best players long term, which means the only guys who hit the free agent market these days are Josh Hamilton and Zack Greinke (among others), who unfortunately have had bad Aprils so far. Elite guys like Buster Posey etc. won't hit the market in this new environment until something else changes. The only reason a guy like David Price is even going to be available is because Tampa Bay is broke ass broke.

 

[Willrust]

CSF77,

Couldn't agree more.

The draft isn't always about selecting a player based strictly upon the teams current needs or even the player's overall talent, it is more often about selecting a player with more perceived value or that are more sign-able. Surely nobody believes that the Padres really thought Matt Bush was the most talented player in the 2004 draft. However, he was taken #1 overall because the Pad's ownership was cheap and knew that they could sign Bush to a small (comparatively) contract.

Some guys slip to later rounds that are just as talented as another youngster, due to a lack of a big time agent or marketing machine to build up their hype or don't have those guys that can put a positive spin on their shortcomings. Case in point, Dan Vogelbach had just as much talent as many of the 1st half of the 1st round players selected in 2011. He wasn't taken because he was/is overweight.

The innings that Appel & Gray are pitching right now is staggering, and I wouldn't be distraught if the Cubs drafted Kris Bryant. At the same time, Appel & Gray likely have the highest value. Don't be surprised if the Cubs use whichever one of those 2 that they end up with as the centerpiece of a David Price deal.

 

[CSF77]

The only reason a guy like David Price is even going to be available is because Tampa Bay is broke ass broke.

Every small market is forced into tough choices. A: Retain. B: Trade out for prospects.

Big markets should be developing to take in those trade outs.

Sure if a Cano or a A-Rod or Castro is produced and can plow up fast sure retain him but in general the 5 year Vitters should be dealt out before they hit.

 

[dabynsky]

CSF77,

Couldn't agree more.

The draft isn't always about selecting a player based strictly upon the teams current needs or even the player's overall talent, it is more often about selecting a player with more perceived value or that are more sign-able. Surely nobody believes that the Padres really thought Matt Bush was the most talented player in the 2004 draft. However, he was taken #1 overall because the Pad's ownership was cheap and knew that they could sign Bush to a small (comparatively) contract.

Some guys slip to later rounds that are just as talented as another youngster, due to a lack of a big time agent or marketing machine to build up their hype or don't have those guys that can put a positive spin on their shortcomings. Case in point, Dan Vogelbach had just as much talent as many of the 1st half of the 1st round players selected in 2011. He wasn't taken because he was/is overweight.

The innings that Appel & Gray are pitching right now is staggering, and I wouldn't be distraught if the Cubs drafted Kris Bryant. At the same time, Appel & Gray likely have the highest value. Don't be surprised if the Cubs use whichever one of those 2 that they end up with as the centerpiece of a David Price deal.

For a guy taken in the June draft this year to be the centerpiece of a David Price deal would mean that the trade wouldn't help until August next year because of the rule preventing trading of a player until a year after they sign. It is unlikely that Price makes it through the next offseason, and it is even more likely that PTBNL is the centerpiece of a deal for a stud with two years of control unfortunately for the Cubs purposes.