Cubs offseason rumors/transactions

[CSF77]

The thing is you can't reliably count on who will have a prime and how long that prime will be so payment is really based in large part on what you have done. I don't see any real way of correcting that

I think that you can take their playing time and find a avg WAR and pay off of that minus age. WAR is pretty much 8 mil per market rate. So if a player has been avg 3 WAR over 5 years then that is a 24 mil base per year then you figure age decrease. That way a player going from 33-38 should see their WAR drop thus their pay drops.

 

[CSF77]

Fowler and Jake are terrible examples. Fowler had no real offers to go to and so the one year deal made sense as the upside was far greater than any potential downside in missed contracts was. Jake right now has at least the Cubs offer (4/110) to take so if you're talking about a one year deal then you're thinking something like 1/30? The downside for Jake is if he continues to not be 2015 Jake and now you're three years away from that AND he's going to be 33, what's his future deal going to be then? My assumption was always to the Angels: owner willing to spend, team that has to win now to keep Trout happy, just got Otani and Richards coming back so the ability to massively improve is right there.

My assumption is one of Darvish or Jake will find a 4/110 or 5/130 offer better than a pillow deal and the Cubs probably don't really care which guy takes it.

4/110 is a safe market for a team. It would cover his 32/33/34/35 age. Then Jake could go after a final contract or go for a year by year rental based deals for contending teams looking for a play off arm.

I really don't see any team going over 5 years with him. His steepest drops should come during his 36-40 YO playing age. He would have to reinvent himself to deal with his reduced velocities. He has already changed his delivery and upped his curve ball usage to counter dropping to 92.
If he falls into the 80's then he is in Hendrick's boat.

 

[beckdawg]

Fowler and Jake are terrible examples. Fowler had no real offers to go to and so the one year deal made sense as the upside was far greater than any potential downside in missed contracts was. Jake right now has at least the Cubs offer (4/110) to take so if you're talking about a one year deal then you're thinking something like 1/30? The downside for Jake is if he continues to not be 2015 Jake and now you're three years away from that AND he's going to be 33, what's his future deal going to be then? My assumption was always to the Angels: owner willing to spend, team that has to win now to keep Trout happy, just got Otani and Richards coming back so the ability to massively improve is right there.

My assumption is one of Darvish or Jake will find a 4/110 or 5/130 offer better than a pillow deal and the Cubs probably don't really care which guy takes it.

You're missing the point I was trying to make. It wasn't that Jake is going to take a 1 year deal. The point I was getting at was Fowler clearly wasn't in the cubs plans for 2016. They literally had to trade Coghlan for almost nothing because an opportunity to sign Fowler arose and the front office saw it as a way to get better. That was the point i was trying to make.

I fully believe the "plan" is to sign Darvish. If you are talking about a lot of teams they will either go over the top to sign their plan or if they fail they will just go out and find a cheap alternative and essentially punt on that improvement. With the cubs I don't see them really having firm plans. They will make moves that complicate their roster situation if they think it makes them better. For example, Zobrist essentially made them trade castro.

Long story short here as it pertains to Jake, all I'm saying is that while I think their preference is Darvish they aren't so locked in to one plan that things can't change if the situation changes. It wouldn't surprise me if they have contingency plans for not only Arrieta but also trades, and signing a lessor guy like Garcia or Lynn if things fail with Darvish.

 

[CSF77]

You're missing the point I was trying to make. It wasn't that Jake is going to take a 1 year deal. The point I was getting at was Fowler clearly wasn't in the cubs plans for 2016. They literally had to trade Coghlan for almost nothing because an opportunity to sign Fowler arose and the front office saw it as a way to get better. That was the point i was trying to make.

I fully believe the "plan" is to sign Darvish. If you are talking about a lot of teams they will either go over the top to sign their plan or if they fail they will just go out and find a cheap alternative and essentially punt on that improvement. With the cubs I don't see them really having firm plans. They will make moves that complicate their roster situation if they think it makes them better. For example, Zobrist essentially made them trade castro.

Long story short here as it pertains to Jake, all I'm saying is that while I think their preference is Darvish they aren't so locked in to one plan that things can't change if the situation changes. It wouldn't surprise me if they have contingency plans for not only Arrieta but also trades, and signing a lessor guy like Garcia or Lynn if things fail with Darvish.

I haven't heard anything on Jamie Garcia myself.

Never broke 200 IP. 7.4 SO/9 4.25 FIP. I really don't believe he pushes the needle enough to bump Montgomery out of the rotation. Cobb is firm at 4/70. That maybe more palatable as a back up plan then most going on. It would be a major disappointment but better than Montgomery.

Right now they have to upgrade Montgomery in the rotation. Lynn and Cobb are the bottom talent that they should aim for. Even then I haven't heard any connection with Lynn. Cobb they seemed to move on from as they offered 3/42 before they signed Chattwood. Both were viewed as the lesser of the 2 that they were aiming for. The greater I believe was a list along the lines of Archer/Othani/Darvish/Arrieta.

Now on the slowness of the signings: Jake is holding up his market. Him holding firm at 7 is screwing his market and I believe Yu is waiting to see if a team bites at it to gauge his market better.
i'm pretty sure 4/110 is what has been offered to Jake from the Cubs. I'm not sure if Mil offered much more than another year because he would of signed if they gave in.

I'm pretty sure Jake for Six years and $160MM was said to be the starting point.
Yu would most likely let Boras do the marketing to establish the price point.
Cobb is at 4/70 right now and I believe a team will pay that.
Lynn is about the same as Cobb.

Cubs honestly have to gun for Darvish. 6/170 might be rich for them but I'm pretty sure that they would rather pay Yu vs Jake.

As a back up they should just stick with Montgomery honestly. Give him a shot at it. Garcia is a slap in the face and if Mike fails in the 1st 1/2 it would open a door for Tseng to take over. The thing is they already replaced Jake with Q last year. It is reality. 2016 was Lester/Jake/Kyle/John/Hammel 2018 would be Lester/Q/Kyle/Chattwoot/Montgomery. It is really not a far drop off. Adding Yu would make the rotation superior to the WS team. It feels luxury honestly.

In view of this: Getting Jon/Q/Kyle back to 2016 pitching production makes this team a contender with out adding. That holds more value at this point. That is why over paying market values is not what Theo intends to do. He offered Jake 4/110 far under the 6/160. Cobb 3/42 vs 4/70. Again under market.



it really makes you wonder what their offer was to Yu. 5/140 would be my guess. with a 6th year option. Yu might be holding out for 7 honestly.

 

[beckdawg]

I haven't heard anything on Jamie Garcia myself.

To reiterate again you're being to literal here or perhaps I'm just unclear as I've had to explain it multiple times. I'm not specifically saying Garcia is their 3rd option or w/e. I'm saying they've likely looked through all the scenarios. Put it this way, I think the way the cubs front office works is they figure out a value they view a player at. Just for the sake of argument, let's say they view Darvish's value at $25 mil AAV. That's just a completely random number I'm just throwing out to illustrate a point so don't take that literally. I believe the cubs don't just do this on one FA. The likely do it on every player in FA and every conceivable trade target. With regard to trades, the value is more cost in terms of prospects vs money but the cubs are a savvy group that likely already has formulas worked out to know what the cost in dollars losing say Almora and 6 years or w/e he has left pre-FA is worth.

Anyways to get back on point, I believe that once a player exceeds the value they have on him they will then look toward other options. This is what I mean when I talk about the cubs front office being different than a lot of teams. As an example, in the past the Yankees didn't care about price they cared about getting "their guy." I feel that the cubs are more a transactional approach team that they will sign players if it makes sense but they never get overly attached to any one guy. The reason I think this is the case is just look at their track record. Lester was arguably the only player they paid top dollar for. And given their history with Lester they may just have had a higher value on him than other teams.

If you read a bit between the lines they more or less have come out and said this. In both Davis and Arrieta they were said to be open to bringing them back and talked to them even though almost no one thought they'd come back. I brought up fowler because to an extent that's the exact thing that happened with him. The O's made him an offer the cubs weren't comfortable with so they passed. When that deal fell through and he was more willing to take a deal that suited the cubs they signed him.

Some have argued it's the cubs "low balling" guys but I don't see it that way. I see them looking more at return on investment. And because they stick to this they are unlikely to put themselves in a bad situation with contracts. For example, let's look at Heyward who most think of as an albatross contract. If you ignore year's 2 and 3 the other 6 years are $21.6, $20, $21, $21, $22, and $22 mil. That roughly equates to between 2.5-2.75 win expectation. He's projected in 2018 for roughly 2.4 wins. And that's not really an optimistic projection. It's basically talking his hitting from 2017 and putting it with his fielding from 2016 and prior. I'm not 100% sure why but for some reason UZR really didn't like Heyward in 2016 but I didn't really notice any glaring issues with his defense falling off so I think it's more a sample size thing. As for years 2 and 3 of his deal I'm not going to sugar coat it. Those years are kinda brutal based on how he is playing today. His salary for those 2 years is expecting 3.5 wins.

Regardless, what's happened to Heyward is basically your worst nightmare scenario when signing a FA in terms of performance not meeting expectations. But even with that worst case he's got a reasonable chance at being value neutral for years 5-8. For the sake of argument if you assume he's worth 2.4 wins the next 6 years that would make his total value 16.8 wins or roughly worth $134.4 mil though given wins over this 8 year period will cost more it's probably closer to $145-150. They gave him $184 mil. So they probably end up negative in terms of surplus value but worst case you're only talking about him being $5-6 mil per season "over paid."

Ultimately that's why having a value on a guy and sticking to it is important. It's easy to fall in love with a player as the "missing piece" to a WS run and then vastly over pay his performance level. But that's how you quickly end up as a .500 team who doesn't have enough financial muscle to improve into an actual contender.

 

[CSF77]

To reiterate again you're being to literal here or perhaps I'm just unclear as I've had to explain it multiple times. I'm not specifically saying Garcia is their 3rd option or w/e. I'm saying they've likely looked through all the scenarios. Put it this way, I think the way the cubs front office works is they figure out a value they view a player at. Just for the sake of argument, let's say they view Darvish's value at $25 mil AAV. That's just a completely random number I'm just throwing out to illustrate a point so don't take that literally. I believe the cubs don't just do this on one FA. The likely do it on every player in FA and every conceivable trade target. With regard to trades, the value is more cost in terms of prospects vs money but the cubs are a savvy group that likely already has formulas worked out to know what the cost in dollars losing say Almora and 6 years or w/e he has left pre-FA is worth.

Anyways to get back on point, I believe that once a player exceeds the value they have on him they will then look toward other options. This is what I mean when I talk about the cubs front office being different than a lot of teams. As an example, in the past the Yankees didn't care about price they cared about getting "their guy." I feel that the cubs are more a transactional approach team that they will sign players if it makes sense but they never get overly attached to any one guy. The reason I think this is the case is just look at their track record. Lester was arguably the only player they paid top dollar for. And given their history with Lester they may just have had a higher value on him than other teams.

If you read a bit between the lines they more or less have come out and said this. In both Davis and Arrieta they were said to be open to bringing them back and talked to them even though almost no one thought they'd come back. I brought up fowler because to an extent that's the exact thing that happened with him. The O's made him an offer the cubs weren't comfortable with so they passed. When that deal fell through and he was more willing to take a deal that suited the cubs they signed him.

Some have argued it's the cubs "low balling" guys but I don't see it that way. I see them looking more at return on investment. And because they stick to this they are unlikely to put themselves in a bad situation with contracts. For example, let's look at Heyward who most think of as an albatross contract. If you ignore year's 2 and 3 the other 6 years are $21.6, $20, $21, $21, $22, and $22 mil. That roughly equates to between 2.5-2.75 win expectation. He's projected in 2018 for roughly 2.4 wins. And that's not really an optimistic projection. It's basically talking his hitting from 2017 and putting it with his fielding from 2016 and prior. I'm not 100% sure why but for some reason UZR really didn't like Heyward in 2016 but I didn't really notice any glaring issues with his defense falling off so I think it's more a sample size thing. As for years 2 and 3 of his deal I'm not going to sugar coat it. Those years are kinda brutal based on how he is playing today. His salary for those 2 years is expecting 3.5 wins.

Regardless, what's happened to Heyward is basically your worst nightmare scenario when signing a FA in terms of performance not meeting expectations. But even with that worst case he's got a reasonable chance at being value neutral for years 5-8. For the sake of argument if you assume he's worth 2.4 wins the next 6 years that would make his total value 16.8 wins or roughly worth $134.4 mil though given wins over this 8 year period will cost more it's probably closer to $145-150. They gave him $184 mil. So they probably end up negative in terms of surplus value but worst case you're only talking about him being $5-6 mil per season "over paid."

Ultimately that's why having a value on a guy and sticking to it is important. It's easy to fall in love with a player as the "missing piece" to a WS run and then vastly over pay his performance level. But that's how you quickly end up as a .500 team who doesn't have enough financial muscle to improve into an actual contender.

I agree with this in general. I just don’t see them spending unless it is a upgrade to Montgomery. Even resigning Lackey would be questionable. Montgomery could put up equal value or surpass what Lackey gave.

I think I’m on the Darvish or hold the deck til Harper is a F/A. An exception would be trading for Salazar as I believe his value is depressed enough where they wouldn’t lose too much in prospects.

But I do believe that they signed Smyly just in case every thing falls through. He is expected to be back next year at this time and competing for a rotation spot. So there is little wrong with building up trade value with Montgomery and dealing him out to net back a needed return.

 

[beckdawg]

I agree with this in general. I just don’t see them spending unless it is a upgrade to Montgomery. Even resigning Lackey would be questionable. Montgomery could put up equal value or surpass what Lackey gave.

Not entirely sure I agree with this. The main issue is if you're taking Monty out of the bullpen that's just another hole to fill. As things stand right now the only LHP in the pen is Wilson, Monty, Dario Álvarez(if he makes the team), and Randy Rosario(again if he makes the team). And moreover, the options in FA for LHP are small. Think the only two LH relievers worth talking about are Tony Watson and Fernando Abad and I don't think either is particularly an impact arm.

If the situation were to arise where they don't get Darvish and for whatever reason can't find anyone better than Monty to start I'd rathe rather just took a 1 year flyer on someone and keep Monty in the pen. Maybe Smyly comes back by the all star break and can provide an impact. Maybe a trade shakes loose. I'm sure Monty wouldn't be happy but it's better for the team in my opinion to throw out another Lackey with Monty in the pen than it is for them to start Monty and sign whomever they can find as a LH reliever.

 

[beckdawg]

So, here's something I haven't seen anyone talk about. The Marlins are clearly in sell anything not bolted down mode if they are talking on Yelich and such. They have some intriguing bullpen arms. Ziegler at $9 mil doesn't really interest me and neither does Tazawa at $7 mil. But presumably if they are in full on rebuild they don't need much of a bullpen similar to the way the cubs dealt Marshall to the reds. Kyle Barraclough and Drew Steckenrider are two names i would love to add. Barraclough is entering his final year before arb. I think Steckenrider has 2 years before arb. And Nick Wittgren is also fairly interesting.

I have no idea on the sort of price that may be involved but frankly adding some power arms from a total sell off Miami interests me more than Yelich/Realmuto.

 

[CSF77]

Not entirely sure I agree with this. The main issue is if you're taking Monty out of the bullpen that's just another hole to fill. As things stand right now the only LHP in the pen is Wilson, Monty, Dario Álvarez(if he makes the team), and Randy Rosario(again if he makes the team). And moreover, the options in FA for LHP are small. Think the only two LH relievers worth talking about are Tony Watson and Fernando Abad and I don't think either is particularly an impact arm.

If the situation were to arise where they don't get Darvish and for whatever reason can't find anyone better than Monty to start I'd rathe rather just took a 1 year flyer on someone and keep Monty in the pen. Maybe Smyly comes back by the all star break and can provide an impact. Maybe a trade shakes loose. I'm sure Monty wouldn't be happy but it's better for the team in my opinion to throw out another Lackey with Monty in the pen than it is for them to start Monty and sign whomever they can find as a LH reliever.

Dario Alvarez
Danny Rosario
Justin Wilson
Rob Zastryzny

Are on the 40 man roster. Rosario should be at AAA. Alvarez has 48 MLB IP logged. Wilson 316 IP. Zastryzny 29 IP.

I'm pretty sure that they can get away with Wilson in a set up position and Alverez in a LOOGY slot. Then have Zast and Rosario at Iowa for depth.

What Montgomery was covering was a swing role. If he starts all they need is a 2 inning guy to replace what he was bringing to the team. Being left handed is not a requirement.

 

[CSF77]

So, here's something I haven't seen anyone talk about. The Marlins are clearly in sell anything not bolted down mode if they are talking on Yelich and such. They have some intriguing bullpen arms. Ziegler at $9 mil doesn't really interest me and neither does Tazawa at $7 mil. But presumably if they are in full on rebuild they don't need much of a bullpen similar to the way the cubs dealt Marshall to the reds. Kyle Barraclough and Drew Steckenrider are two names i would love to add. Barraclough is entering his final year before arb. I think Steckenrider has 2 years before arb. And Nick Wittgren is also fairly interesting.

I have no idea on the sort of price that may be involved but frankly adding some power arms from a total sell off Miami interests me more than Yelich/Realmuto.

Yelich intrigues me. But I see a lead off as a luxury honestly. I would much rather have them hold the deck in the outfield and give those AB's to Almora. Build up his trade value and deal him and Montgomery together. Then move Heyward to CF and sign Harper for RF.

I keep on seeing a line up of:
Schwarber/Bryant/Harper/Contreras/Rizzo/Baez/Heyward/Russell.

To add to it there has been some rumbling on moving Russell to 2B and Baez to SS. Russell has been limited by his foot and previously his shoulder. Both have been limiting his arm and his range. Baez is not as smooth but has a stronger arm and more range. He is far less reliable on the routine. This should be interesting to see what transpires out of S/T.

 

[chibears55]

Supposedly according to Levine their talking with Cain now....

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[beckdawg]

Dario Alvarez
Danny Rosario
Justin Wilson
Rob Zastryzny

Are on the 40 man roster. Rosario should be at AAA. Alvarez has 48 MLB IP logged. Wilson 316 IP. Zastryzny 29 IP.

I'm pretty sure that they can get away with Wilson in a set up position and Alverez in a LOOGY slot. Then have Zast and Rosario at Iowa for depth.

What Montgomery was covering was a swing role. If he starts all they need is a 2 inning guy to replace what he was bringing to the team. Being left handed is not a requirement.

You don't build a team to compete for the WS in the offseason by "getting by". Having a strong LH option out of the bullpen is a must. And granted I suppose you can argue that's Wilson but for all we know he's going to need to close. Regardless, way I see it, I'd rather take my chances with someone like lackey as the 5th starter and just know it's something you're hoping to improve on anyways rather than go into the season knowing you'll need to add bullpen help. My view is starting pitching is always going to cost an arm and a leg and presuming they don't land anyone as you'd suggested you'd likely be considering trades anyways.

If there's one thing i can't stand is them giving up useful prospects for relievers. Solve that shit in the offseason.

 

[beckdawg]

Supposedly according to Levine their talking with Cain now....

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Doesn't make sense to me unless you have a trade already lined up involving almora. And if that is the case I can't imagine Almora + Happ/Schwarber gets you enough to warrant this sort of move. Given the recent report that they wanted a controllable starter for Baez I have to imagine they would think Baez + Almora could likely be the start of a bigger package. Archer is the obvious name people will think of but I've heard detroit wanted almora when they were talking at the last trade deadline. Baez + Almora + other stuff for Michael Fulmer would be rather interesting. And Detroit did just deal away Kinsler with nothing behind him. They are also loaded at the prospect level with high quality arms. Their top 4 prospects are all arms and top 100 guys.

 

[chibears55]

Doesn't make sense to me unless you have a trade already lined up involving almora. And if that is the case I can't imagine Almora + Happ/Schwarber gets you enough to warrant this sort of move. Given the recent report that they wanted a controllable starter for Baez I have to imagine they would think Baez + Almora could likely be the start of a bigger package. Archer is the obvious name people will think of but I've heard detroit wanted almora when they were talking at the last trade deadline. Baez + Almora + other stuff for Michael Fulmer would be rather interesting. And Detroit did just deal away Kinsler with nothing behind him. They are also loaded at the prospect level with high quality arms. Their top 4 prospects are all arms and top 100 guys.

If they do get Cain or Yelich...
I dont see why Almora cant stick around and be the 4th OFer, he can play all 3 positions

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[beckdawg]

If they do get Cain or Yelich...
I dont see why Almora cant stick around and be the 4th OFer, he can play all 3 positions

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My point was more why get Cain or Yelich if you have Almora? Almora has been worth 2.0 fWAR in his 440 PAs over 2 years. Over a "full season" that's roughly a 3 win player and I think you could argue his limited playing time at points held back his development some. For the sake of argument let's say 3.5 wins is well within reach and if he breaks out 4 wins is possible. Cain was worth 4.1 fWAR last year. He did have a monster 2015 at 6.5 fWAR and another decent year in 2014 at 4.8 fWAR. But he's never been better than those 3 years. He's going to be 32 and in those 3 years he had a wRC+ of 109 in 2014, 128 in 2015, and 115 last year. Almora through 440 PAs is a 102 wRC+. I wouldn't bet on him to get over 120 wRC+ but he's only going to be 24 next year. 110 wRC+ is easily possible. And with regard to Cain, most of his value has come from his defense. But at 32 you have to expect that to fall off. In 2014 his defense portion of fWAR was worth 1.7 wins and in 2015 it was worth 1.6 wins. Last year that fell all the way to 0.4 wins. That's not to say Cain is a "bad" player but is the difference between him and Almora worth probably $15 mil+ a year? I really doubt it.

As for Yelich, he's basically maxed out at 4.5 fWAR 3 times. He's only 25 so there's probably a 5 win season in him and maybe more. However, I don't think you really want him playing CF. Over 2025.0 innings(~2 seasons) he's -12 DRS and -5.9 UZR/150. Presumably the cubs are keeping Schwarber. So, you want a strong defender next to him. And they can't really even play Heyward in CF and Yelich in RF because his biggest defensive issue is his arm. And while his bat is certainly nice there's really bigger issues the cubs have than needing him. If you're going to part with prospects you should address weakness.

I think Yelich is not happening. I could see Cain making some sense but only if the cubs were going to need to part with Almora to fix some other issue. And presumably that would mean pairing Almora with someone like Baez to get you a starter.

 

[chibears55]

My point was more why get Cain or Yelich if you have Almora? Almora has been worth 2.0 fWAR in his 440 PAs over 2 years. Over a "full season" that's roughly a 3 win player and I think you could argue his limited playing time at points held back his development some. For the sake of argument let's say 3.5 wins is well within reach and if he breaks out 4 wins is possible. Cain was worth 4.1 fWAR last year. He did have a monster 2015 at 6.5 fWAR and another decent year in 2014 at 4.8 fWAR. But he's never been better than those 3 years. He's going to be 32 and in those 3 years he had a wRC+ of 109 in 2014, 128 in 2015, and 115 last year. Almora through 440 PAs is a 102 wRC+. I wouldn't bet on him to get over 120 wRC+ but he's only going to be 24 next year. 110 wRC+ is easily possible. And with regard to Cain, most of his value has come from his defense. But at 32 you have to expect that to fall off. In 2014 his defense portion of fWAR was worth 1.7 wins and in 2015 it was worth 1.6 wins. Last year that fell all the way to 0.4 wins. That's not to say Cain is a "bad" player but is the difference between him and Almora worth probably $15 mil+ a year? I really doubt it.

As for Yelich, he's basically maxed out at 4.5 fWAR 3 times. He's only 25 so there's probably a 5 win season in him and maybe more. However, I don't think you really want him playing CF. Over 2025.0 innings(~2 seasons) he's -12 DRS and -5.9 UZR/150. Presumably the cubs are keeping Schwarber. So, you want a strong defender next to him. And they can't really even play Heyward in CF and Yelich in RF because his biggest defensive issue is his arm. And while his bat is certainly nice there's really bigger issues the cubs have than needing him. If you're going to part with prospects you should address weakness.

I think Yelich is not happening. I could see Cain making some sense but only if the cubs were going to need to part with Almora to fix some other issue. And presumably that would mean pairing Almora with someone like Baez to get you a starter.

I see Cain coming more so then Yelich..
I just dont see Epstein trading multiple players he dont really have without weakning his roster..

Why add him, probably because they just dont see Almora being an everyday player like we fans think he can be..
Cain will give them more stability at top of order..

Seriously if they got Cain on a reasonable deal , as much as i like Almora i wouldnt be upset..
He an upgrade for the top of lineup that was a mess last year..



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[beckdawg]

I see Cain coming more so then Yelich..
I just dont see Epstein trading multiple players he dont really have without weakning his roster..

Why add him, probably because they just dont see Almora being an everyday player like we fans think he can be..
Cain will give them more stability at top of order..

Seriously if they got Cain on a reasonable deal , as much as i like Almora i wouldnt be upset..
He an upgrade for the top of lineup that was a mess last year..



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If they didn't view almora as an every day player they would have re-signed Fowler. I mean it's not like Fowler is making nuts money. He got $16.5 x 5. I seriously doubt you're getting Cain for less than 3 years at roughly $15 mil. So, effectively they would only have been 1 year longer to keep Fowler who clearly fit their team in 2016. Like I said, I can see the logic behind Cain at the right price but signing him and keeping Almora makes little sense to me. He's worth more to a team rebuilding than he is to the cubs as a 4th outfielder. And clearly the cubs still need more pitching which they wont be able to afford and stay under the luxury tax if you add $15 mil on with Cain.

The cubs already had trouble last year getting guys playing time and the were sort of lucky in that regard with russell being hurt for awhile. That let them play Baez at SS. But presumably that isn't happening again and last year they didn't have to find Happ playing time for the first half of the year. You add Cain to what they already have and it's going to be impossible to find playing time for Zobrist and Almora. On the flip side if you deal Almora and Baez and add Cain then you have Cain every day in CF, and Happ/Zobrist at 2B. That logistically makes sense assuming you get a pitcher worth Almora/Baez. Or I suppose if you prefer you could swap happ or russell in for Baez if you're a baez guy but regardless the only way cain makes sense to me is if you do that.

 

[chibears55]

If they didn't view almora as an every day player they would have re-signed Fowler. I mean it's not like Fowler is making nuts money. He got $16.5 x 5. I seriously doubt you're getting Cain for less than 3 years at roughly $15 mil. So, effectively they would only have been 1 year longer to keep Fowler who clearly fit their team in 2016. Like I said, I can see the logic behind Cain at the right price but signing him and keeping Almora makes little sense to me. He's worth more to a team rebuilding than he is to the cubs as a 4th outfielder. And clearly the cubs still need more pitching which they wont be able to afford and stay under the luxury tax if you add $15 mil on with Cain.

The cubs already had trouble last year getting guys playing time and the were sort of lucky in that regard with russell being hurt for awhile. That let them play Baez at SS. But presumably that isn't happening again and last year they didn't have to find Happ playing time for the first half of the year. You add Cain to what they already have and it's going to be impossible to find playing time for Zobrist and Almora. On the flip side if you deal Almora and Baez and add Cain then you have Cain every day in CF, and Happ/Zobrist at 2B. That logistically makes sense assuming you get a pitcher worth Almora/Baez. Or I suppose if you prefer you could swap happ or russell in for Baez if you're a baez guy but regardless the only way cain makes sense to me is if you do that.

Im not totally disagreeing with you..
Maybe they do trade Almora but then aren't they looking for another defensive OFer who can play CF

I just gave a probable reason as to why if their truly going after Cain

I dont care for rumors, ill post on here what being tossed around..
Pretty much same stuff just a different day .. this is what out there between cubs and Cain

According to Bruce Levine of 670 The Score, the Cubs have a rumored three-year deal on the table for former Kansas City Royals center fielder Lorenzo Cain.




Im still trying to figure out why guys like Avila still sitting out there..

It just seems like a strange offseason where teams arent very active ..



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[beckdawg]

Maybe they do trade Almora but then aren't they looking for another defensive OFer who can play CF

I think no. The thing is the cubs have two quasi CF's in Happ and Heyward. You don't really want to start either there but they are good enough to not kill you. So, that gives you a lot of flexibility with the rest of your roster. Now you could argue that if you deal Baez and play Happ at 2B that weakens you some but they also still have La Stella and Zobrist. So, they are REALLY deep at 2B.

I would argue that sort of move would leave them a little exposed at SS however. But the thing is since there's been almost no moment on anyone there's still depth guys out there. For example, Mike Aviles(career 5.3 UZR/150 at SS), Stephen Drew(career -3.1 at SS), Alcides Escobar(2.4), Ryan Goins(-0.9), J.J. Hardy(10.4), Jose Reyes(-0.9), and Adam Rosales(-3.6) are still out there. Now most of these guys are glove only and I'm not sure I'd want all of them that much but Drew and Hardy wouldn't be terrible bench guys. At 34 and 35 respectively I doubt anyone is going to give them a full time gig and given the cubs are good both might want to play for a winner. And the thing is you wouldn't really give a **** about them getting a ton of at bats. In essence you'd have another guy like La Stella though with the ability to play SS.

 

[chibears55]

I think no. The thing is the cubs have two quasi CF's in Happ and Heyward. You don't really want to start either there but they are good enough to not kill you. So, that gives you a lot of flexibility with the rest of your roster. Now you could argue that if you deal Baez and play Happ at 2B that weakens you some but they also still have La Stella and Zobrist. So, they are REALLY deep at 2B.

I would argue that sort of move would leave them a little exposed at SS however. But the thing is since there's been almost no moment on anyone there's still depth guys out there. For example, Mike Aviles(career 5.3 UZR/150 at SS), Stephen Drew(career -3.1 at SS), Alcides Escobar(2.4), Ryan Goins(-0.9), J.J. Hardy(10.4), Jose Reyes(-0.9), and Adam Rosales(-3.6) are still out there. Now most of these guys are glove only and I'm not sure I'd want all of them that much but Drew and Hardy wouldn't be terrible bench guys. At 34 and 35 respectively I doubt anyone is going to give them a full time gig and given the cubs are good both might want to play for a winner. And the thing is you wouldn't really give a **** about them getting a ton of at bats. In essence you'd have another guy like La Stella though with the ability to play SS.

One thing for sure when or if they start making moves, it going to be interesting to see how the roster ends up and who if anyone they move off it

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