Cubs offseason rumors/transactions

[beckdawg]

One thing for sure when or if they start making moves, it going to be interesting to see how the roster ends up and who if anyone they move off it

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I think next week things are going to pick up. Supposedly the only reason Darvish hasn't signed was Minny couldn't work out a meeting with him for awhile which seems really stupid... i mean how fucking hard is it to meet with a guy? Once Darvish falls, I think cobb goes quickly after. Arreita may take longer because he seems dead set on a particular deal. As for position guys i am not really sure what the hold up is. Think it might be st louis. Toronto just made a deal for a 3B so could be that they are working out a deal for Donaldson. That might free up Hosmer.

Regardless shouldn't be too much longer.

 

[chibears55]

Interesting...

https://twitter.com/JimBowdenGM/status/950079932398473218




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[CSF77]

Beck: I’m seeing Wilson and Edwards being the main 2 set ups.

Alvarez as a LOOGY. And Chelek as his RH counter.

Those 2 are high leverage situational

After that they have Strop and Grimm. Both are lower leverage in general.

Morrow is the closer unless they upgrade. They wouldn’t have invested 21 mil into a set up.

So honestly they need a quality 2 inning guy and there is no reason why that person throws from the left or the right.

 

[CSF77]

I think next week things are going to pick up. Supposedly the only reason Darvish hasn't signed was Minny couldn't work out a meeting with him for awhile which seems really stupid... i mean how fucking hard is it to meet with a guy? Once Darvish falls, I think cobb goes quickly after. Arreita may take longer because he seems dead set on a particular deal. As for position guys i am not really sure what the hold up is. Think it might be st louis. Toronto just made a deal for a 3B so could be that they are working out a deal for Donaldson. That might free up Hosmer.

Regardless shouldn't be too much longer.

I’m predicting Darvish: Cubs
Cards ink Arretta in a panic rebute
Then Crew May freek and go after Cobb as they are falling out of the play off picture.

 

[chibears55]

This guy thinks it between cubs and twins for Darvish, eventhough the twins still havent talked to him yet

https://twitter.com/TheCubsReporter/status/950124237678895104

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[beckdawg]

Beck: I’m seeing Wilson and Edwards being the main 2 set ups.

Alvarez as a LOOGY. And Chelek as his RH counter.

Those 2 are high leverage situational

After that they have Strop and Grimm. Both are lower leverage in general.

Morrow is the closer unless they upgrade. They wouldn’t have invested 21 mil into a set up.

So honestly they need a quality 2 inning guy and there is no reason why that person throws from the left or the right.

I'd be very surprised if they go into the season counting on Alvarez. I mean as a lotto ticket LH pitcher he's not a bad guy. But he's not a loogy presently. Just look at this career splits. .272/.370/.443 .356 wOBA vs LH and .301/.388/.505 .378 wOBA. Those are fucking horrible to put faith in. The reason the cubs signed him was probably what he did with Atlanta in 2016. He had an absurd 16.80 k/9 in 15.0 innings in the majors and nearly a 16 k/9 in another 23 innings with the Mets/Braves at AAA. Simply put he's a project not a firm solution.

The thing is Wilson despite being a LHP isn't really a loogy either. He has reverse splits(.249/.322/.346 .298 wOBA vs LH and .205/.298/.317 .274 wOBA vs RH). If you remove Monty from the pen the cubs really have issues there. Last year Edwards was the best guy vs LHP(.117/.244/.193 .204 wOBA) though you likely don't want to use him just to get LH batters out. Davis was #2 but obviously gone. Strop was #3(.176/.265/.233 .230 wOBA). Monty was #4(.226/.297/.333 .276 wOBA). Duensing was #5 and gone. Uehara was #6 and gone. No one else was under league average which is .253/.332/.428 .325 wOBA for reference. So, Wilson is barely under league average vs LHP.

That's why I'd be surprised if they actually let Monty start. To do that you basically have to sign Addison Reed or Watson(just as a loogy). And all things being equal, I'd prefer they sign both Reed and Darvish. Putting Monty in the rotation and only adding Reed seems like you're really not improving much. If you compare the playoff rotation to the current rotation with Monty top 3 remain the same but you're talking about Arrieta/Lackey vs Chatwood/Monty. That's a pretty big step down. And in terms of the BP, you're going from Davis to Morrow which is probably a slight loss that could be more if he isn't healthy. Cishek is probably better than Rondon but the bullpen was a big problem in the playoffs. From my eyes it doesn't feel like monty in the rotation really improves their bullpen enough going into the season.

 

[beckdawg]

This guy thinks it between cubs and twins for Darvish, eventhough the twins still havent talked to him yet

https://twitter.com/TheCubsReporter/status/950124237678895104

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Sorta feel like he's using the twins to get the cubs to up their offer. Like if they were that serious about him or I suppose I should say if he were that serious about them how the **** do you wait until mid january to set up a meeting with them?

 

[chibears55]

Sorta feel like he's using the twins to get the cubs to up their offer. Like if they were that serious about him or I suppose I should say if he were that serious about them how the **** do you wait until mid january to set up a meeting with them?

If that the case it probably not working, especially since they havent met..

Im surprise though there weren't more teams in on him ..

Guess teams are either taking this luxery tax seriously or waiting for next year FA to splurge

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[beckdawg]

If that the case it probably not working, especially since they havent met..

Im surprise though there weren't more teams in on him ..

Guess teams are either taking this luxery tax seriously or waiting for next year FA to splurge

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Well I think houston met with him so they probably are some what involved. It's just a weird year for teams needing pitching because the playoff teams are oddly set aside from minny and the cubs. Like even though houston is interested some what, they won the WS without him and had pretty good starters. I'm not entirely sure if the cubs planned that but if the big market teams would sort of agree to avoid each other they could likely really help themselves. Reminds me a bit of how IFA worked in the previous rules because you'd have one or two teams go crazy a year then the next year it was some other big team.

Regardless, seems likely the cubs have a good chance to land Darvish without entirely breaking the bank which could be really fortuitous.

 

[CSF77]

I'd be very surprised if they go into the season counting on Alvarez. I mean as a lotto ticket LH pitcher he's not a bad guy. But he's not a loogy presently. Just look at this career splits. .272/.370/.443 .356 wOBA vs LH and .301/.388/.505 .378 wOBA. Those are fucking horrible to put faith in. The reason the cubs signed him was probably what he did with Atlanta in 2016. He had an absurd 16.80 k/9 in 15.0 innings in the majors and nearly a 16 k/9 in another 23 innings with the Mets/Braves at AAA. Simply put he's a project not a firm solution.

The thing is Wilson despite being a LHP isn't really a loogy either. He has reverse splits(.249/.322/.346 .298 wOBA vs LH and .205/.298/.317 .274 wOBA vs RH). If you remove Monty from the pen the cubs really have issues there. Last year Edwards was the best guy vs LHP(.117/.244/.193 .204 wOBA) though you likely don't want to use him just to get LH batters out. Davis was #2 but obviously gone. Strop was #3(.176/.265/.233 .230 wOBA). Monty was #4(.226/.297/.333 .276 wOBA). Duensing was #5 and gone. Uehara was #6 and gone. No one else was under league average which is .253/.332/.428 .325 wOBA for reference. So, Wilson is barely under league average vs LHP.

That's why I'd be surprised if they actually let Monty start. To do that you basically have to sign Addison Reed or Watson(just as a loogy). And all things being equal, I'd prefer they sign both Reed and Darvish. Putting Monty in the rotation and only adding Reed seems like you're really not improving much. If you compare the playoff rotation to the current rotation with Monty top 3 remain the same but you're talking about Arrieta/Lackey vs Chatwood/Monty. That's a pretty big step down. And in terms of the BP, you're going from Davis to Morrow which is probably a slight loss that could be more if he isn't healthy. Cishek is probably better than Rondon but the bullpen was a big problem in the playoffs. From my eyes it doesn't feel like monty in the rotation really improves their bullpen enough going into the season.

I'm thinking if they sign Darvish it pushes Montgomery into the pen and he demands a trade.

Pen depth:
CL: Morrow
SU: Edwards/Willson
MR: Grimm/Strop
High leverage: Cishek/Alvarez

Now I do see a 8th man in Montgomery but if he starts to demand a trade then it makes sense to get a LHBP arm in return. SDP would be ideal with Hand over there. He might even take the closer role. Montgomery would most likely start over there and holds 4 years of control. Just guessing he is a 1.5 WAR pitcher and that is about 6 WAR going over. Hand comes with 2 years of control and has put up 1.5-1.7 WAR in the pen. You could argue a even swap but you could toss minor league players from both sides to make it intriguing.

But this is something to think over if they land Darvish and Montgomery makes a stink.

 

[CSF77]

Well I think houston met with him so they probably are some what involved. It's just a weird year for teams needing pitching because the playoff teams are oddly set aside from minny and the cubs. Like even though houston is interested some what, they won the WS without him and had pretty good starters. I'm not entirely sure if the cubs planned that but if the big market teams would sort of agree to avoid each other they could likely really help themselves. Reminds me a bit of how IFA worked in the previous rules because you'd have one or two teams go crazy a year then the next year it was some other big team.

Regardless, seems likely the cubs have a good chance to land Darvish without entirely breaking the bank which could be really fortuitous.

My opinion is Jake would get 27.5 AAV per if he takes less years. If he holds firm on 7 then the AAV drops as teams are going to want to have the last years at a fraction of the initial AAV. Something like Years 1-4 at 25 AAV then 5-6 22 AAV the 7 at 20 with a 10 buy out. I really don't see a team just flipping him 7/175 7/164 is more realistic.

Yu is just a better pitcher and has improved over the last 3 years while Jake has gotten worse. So that is why he has more trade weight right now. Ya the innings and age is a factor but teams look at trends and with Jake's decrease in velocity his Fip has increased. And it is getting worse every year. Yu has trended the other way.

So to say 7/175 for Yu I believe a team will pay that. It is what is is. Jake they will not and they will look to place in clauses to be able to bail out if they do sign. Because if a GM just panic's and gives in he will end up axed. That is a albatros of a contract to absorb for a guy that is looking like a #4 starter. That is basically what the Yanks did with CC and had to eat years of sub performance just because the guy got old.

 

[beckdawg]

I'm thinking if they sign Darvish it pushes Montgomery into the pen and he demands a trade.

Pen depth:
CL: Morrow
SU: Edwards/Willson
MR: Grimm/Strop
High leverage: Cishek/Alvarez

Now I do see a 8th man in Montgomery but if he starts to demand a trade then it makes sense to get a LHBP arm in return. SDP would be ideal with Hand over there. He might even take the closer role. Montgomery would most likely start over there and holds 4 years of control. Just guessing he is a 1.5 WAR pitcher and that is about 6 WAR going over. Hand comes with 2 years of control and has put up 1.5-1.7 WAR in the pen. You could argue a even swap but you could toss minor league players from both sides to make it intriguing.

But this is something to think over if they land Darvish and Montgomery makes a stink.

Again I think you're putting far too much faith in Alvarez. I don't even think he starts the season with the cubs(likely a trip to AAA to work on issues). They put him on the 40 man when they signed him effectively giving him the league minimum but if he were actually someone who was solidly on the roster he would have got more money. I mean take Duensing for example. Most didn't expect him to even make the team last year and he still got $2 mil.

Also, you entirely left off Maples. Frankly think he replaces Grimm. Not sure if Grimm has options but wouldn't shock me to see him in AAA too because he's just not been the same guy he was in 2015 the past 2 years. Also, IMO cishek isn't a high leverage guy. He's more than likely the 8th inning guy. Edwards is your high leverage guy. While a historical way to set up your bullpen would be to have Edwards in the 8th, the game is changing. Those high leverage situations are of greater impact than answering "who throws the 8th?" If you have runners on and need a K Cishek isn't your guy. Edwards is. Cishek is a guy you let start an inning and because he doesn't walk people he likely gets you through it. Edwards on the contrary can get out of big jams at times but often is his own worst enemy when he walks people. Giving him a clean inning to start with really doesn't benefit him more than a high leverage situation.

As for Monty demanding a trade, I mean if he were going to do that he would have done it already. My take is the cubs don't trade him unless it's to acquire a starter. Suppose the whole Machado idea is out there but that seems like a bit of an odd one. Regardless, the pen you listed is arguably worse than the 2017 cubs pen which was my earlier point. I don't see how they've strengthened it at all if you remove monty from the pen.

 

[CSF77]

Again I think you're putting far too much faith in Alvarez. I don't even think he starts the season with the cubs(likely a trip to AAA to work on issues). They put him on the 40 man when they signed him effectively giving him the league minimum but if he were actually someone who was solidly on the roster he would have got more money. I mean take Duensing for example. Most didn't expect him to even make the team last year and he still got $2 mil.

Also, you entirely left off Maples. Frankly think he replaces Grimm. Not sure if Grimm has options but wouldn't shock me to see him in AAA too because he's just not been the same guy he was in 2015 the past 2 years. Also, IMO cishek isn't a high leverage guy. He's more than likely the 8th inning guy. Edwards is your high leverage guy. While a historical way to set up your bullpen would be to have Edwards in the 8th, the game is changing. Those high leverage situations are of greater impact than answering "who throws the 8th?" If you have runners on and need a K Cishek isn't your guy. Edwards is. Cishek is a guy you let start an inning and because he doesn't walk people he likely gets you through it. Edwards on the contrary can get out of big jams at times but often is his own worst enemy when he walks people. Giving him a clean inning to start with really doesn't benefit him more than a high leverage situation.

As for Monty demanding a trade, I mean if he were going to do that he would have done it already. My take is the cubs don't trade him unless it's to acquire a starter. Suppose the whole Machado idea is out there but that seems like a bit of an odd one. Regardless, the pen you listed is arguably worse than the 2017 cubs pen which was my earlier point. I don't see how they've strengthened it at all if you remove monty from the pen.

I'm pretty sure that they gave him a major league deal because they felt that he was a easy fix. Which means mechanical issue vs lack of talent. Lets give the guy the benni at least. If he was pulling Cashner's SO/9 then I would not even have mentioned his name.

I don't think Montgomery holds much trade wight honestly. Sure he has 4 years going but his high water was last year in a swing role and hit 1.3. He is kinda intriguing because of his stints of dominance in those starts. But with Q added he really never go a shot to really prove if he was a legit starter or a tweener guy.

But we are talking about the SDP. Makes avg SP look like studds all of the time. A guy like Montgomery could look like the next ex-Cub great..Well Wood didn't but I digress.

Still Mike is not a center piece for a SP. Prospect wise they do not have the blue chip to center around. So that leaves Happ. And honestly if you are talking Happ/Montgomery and prospects it feels a bit much and a little bit of the panic button.

I wouldn't do it myself.

 

[CSF77]

Also, you entirely left off Maples.

I want to add him but his BB/9 are a issue. If they were committed then Grim would have been axed.

Also, IMO cishek isn't a high leverage guy. He's more than likely the 8th inning guy. Edwards is your high leverage guy. While a historical way to set up your bullpen would be to have Edwards in the 8th, the game is changing. Those high leverage situations are of greater impact than answering "who throws the 8th?" If you have runners on and need a K Cishek isn't your guy. Edwards is. Cishek is a guy you let start an inning and because he doesn't walk people he likely gets you through it. Edwards on the contrary can get out of big jams at times but often is his own worst enemy when he walks people. Giving him a clean inning to start with really doesn't benefit him more than a high leverage situation.

Honestly you answered that yourself. Edwards was not dependable when they needed him. 2016 if was him/Montgomery that held it together. Chapman/Davis were a wash. 2017 Neither were dependable and they have to rely on Strop and Duesing. Neither were as dominate as Montgomery and Edwards were the previous years.

So in view of this Edwards needs to prove that he is dependable as does Wilson. Having them in a set up role means they are starting the 7th or 8th inning regularly and are not being brought in to get that out with the game on the line. The reality is edwards and Wilson both disappeared when they should have been the goto guys last year and left it all on Davis who got burnt out from over use. Just saying. So you have to put them into lower impact roles until they prove that they are reliable again.

 

[DanTown]

Of the roles Mike Montgomery is most valuable to the organization, it's likely

1. Bullpen/swing starter
2. Trade bait
3. Full-time reliever
4. Full-time starter

 

[beckdawg]

Honestly you answered that yourself. Edwards was not dependable when they needed him. 2016 if was him/Montgomery that held it together. Chapman/Davis were a wash. 2017 Neither were dependable and they have to rely on Strop and Duesing. Neither were as dominate as Montgomery and Edwards were the previous years.

So in view of this Edwards needs to prove that he is dependable as does Wilson. Having them in a set up role means they are starting the 7th or 8th inning regularly and are not being brought in to get that out with the game on the line. The reality is edwards and Wilson both disappeared when they should have been the goto guys last year and left it all on Davis who got burnt out from over use. Just saying. So you have to put them into lower impact roles until they prove that they are reliable again.

Don't agree with this at all. You're treating different game situations like they are the same. When a reliever comes into the game with men on base they need to get K's. That's entirely different than coming into an inning fresh. I don't care how good a reliever you are, the expectation in that situation is to give up runs. League average for high leverage situations among all pitchers is a 9.41 ERA with .246/.332/.413 triple slash and a .314 wOBA. That's with a 8.16/3.55 k/bb per 9. Edwards really doesn't have enough of a sample to firmly judge but in high leverage situations he has a .180/.351/.397 triple slash and a .320 wOBA to go with a 9.17 ERA and 13.0 k/9 and 7.3 bb/9. So, he's basically been league average and that's only because of his command. That .180 average against in high leverage situations is 47th best among all pitchers and his 12.7 k/9 is 12th best. Only guys above him are the elite of elite closers.

In other words, he's the guy you want when you need an out. Ok maybe he blows the game with a walk but league average is a fucking 9.41 ERA in those situations. And even with his walk issues his ERA in high leverage situations is still better than league average at 9.17. Those are situations you're expecting to lose games in. If he blows it oh well but he's one of the few relievers in the game with a chance to pitch out of that type of situation. What you absolutely can't have is him coming into a game in the 8th with a lead and giving it away with walks. That's where you want your more dependable guys. You want your guys with the filthiest stuff for situations like the starter puts 2 on with nobody out. In that situation is to pray for a K and a ground ball double play. Cishek does nothing for you there. Ok sure he might not walk guys but he's likely giving up at least 1 run no matter what.

 

[beckdawg]

I'm pretty sure that they gave him a major league deal because they felt that he was a easy fix. Which means mechanical issue vs lack of talent. Lets give the guy the benni at least.

They gave him a MLB deal because that's what it took to sign him and they had the space on their 40 man. You don't sign players you need to fix and essentially guarantee them a spot on the roster. If he is shit and that is what they have done you literally have no recourse. You sign a player like him as a guy to compete in spring training but you bring in several others because there's a high chance he fails. If he was an "easy fix" he would have had legit money offers from multiple teams.

 

[CSF77]

Don't agree with this at all. You're treating different game situations like they are the same. When a reliever comes into the game with men on base they need to get K's. That's entirely different than coming into an inning fresh. I don't care how good a reliever you are, the expectation in that situation is to give up runs. League average for high leverage situations among all pitchers is a 9.41 ERA with .246/.332/.413 triple slash and a .314 wOBA. That's with a 8.16/3.55 k/bb per 9. Edwards really doesn't have enough of a sample to firmly judge but in high leverage situations he has a .180/.351/.397 triple slash and a .320 wOBA to go with a 9.17 ERA and 13.0 k/9 and 7.3 bb/9. So, he's basically been league average and that's only because of his command. That .180 average against in high leverage situations is 47th best among all pitchers and his 12.7 k/9 is 12th best. Only guys above him are the elite of elite closers.

In other words, he's the guy you want when you need an out. Ok maybe he blows the game with a walk but league average is a fucking 9.41 ERA in those situations. And even with his walk issues his ERA in high leverage situations is still better than league average at 9.17. Those are situations you're expecting to lose games in. If he blows it oh well but he's one of the few relievers in the game with a chance to pitch out of that type of situation. What you absolutely can't have is him coming into a game in the 8th with a lead and giving it away with walks. That's where you want your more dependable guys. You want your guys with the filthiest stuff for situations like the starter puts 2 on with nobody out. In that situation is to pray for a K and a ground ball double play. Cishek does nothing for you there. Ok sure he might not walk guys but he's likely giving up at least 1 run no matter what.

That is exactly what I'm saying. When the game is on the line you need the guy that you can trust to get that out. Last play off Wilson and Edwards were not used by Joe.

This is the thing. It is Joe's call and he goes with what he is seeing vs what the metrics are saying. Sure that is part of it but if the game is on the line (playoffs) he went with Strop and Davis for the most part. Edwards and Wilson were not in it.

All I'm saying is these guys have to get Joe in their corner again and the season will take care of itself by who is dependable.

Joe has said that he goes back to guys and likes to see a short term memory out of his pen guys. No one is 100% all of the time but they can't be 50% guys and be trusted either.

Now on the ML deal on Alvarez. Sure you can say that but they didn't have to sign him at all. Why give the guy a major league deal if you were not intending to use him? All I'm saying is give a little faith here and honestly they have a new perspective in a pitching coach and one of the best baseball minds in Jim Benedict. Honestly is is far more likely that Alverez makes the next step vs not right now.

What I look at is his career SO/9 is 11.44. So he has a plus pitch that can be unhittable. His weakness so far is in his control. 4.13 career BB/9 and .374 BABIP. Which means he misses location alot. It is what it is with him but I doubt he had any leverage to force a major league deal. His numbers guaranteed a trip to AAA. But the Cubs gave him a MLB deal. So there has to be something there and most likely Jim Hickey was part of it due to the fact he has to deal with him now. You just don't sign guys with out your coaches input. Not with this org.

 

[beckdawg]

Now on the ML deal on Alvarez. Sure you can say that but they didn't have to sign him at all. Why give the guy a major league deal if you were not intending to use him?

Because he is a project just like Butler and Mills were projects. My point on him is you don't assume projects will be a part of your 25 man roster. If the pan out great. But you have to prepare as though they never make it out of spring training because if you assume he makes it and he's just shit in ST then you have no one else. He's not proven himself to be reliable enough to actually count on.

Put it this way, I'd count on Morrow, Cishek, Strop, Edwards and Wilson. They still need another 3 guys. If you wanna go a committee approach for one of those 3 spots that's fine. In my view you have to put Monty in the pen because unless they sign another 2 arms they don't have enough reliable guys. I would keep him there, and then sign someone(maybe reed). Then for your final slot if you want to have Maples, grimm and Alvarez fight it out to see who wins that job more power to you. But I definitely wouldn't had 2 jobs to 3 of those guys. That's a pretty weak back end of your bullpen if you do.

 

[chibears55]

Because he is a project just like Butler and Mills were projects. My point on him is you don't assume projects will be a part of your 25 man roster. If the pan out great. But you have to prepare as though they never make it out of spring training because if you assume he makes it and he's just shit in ST then you have no one else. He's not proven himself to be reliable enough to actually count on.

Put it this way, I'd count on Morrow, Cishek, Strop, Edwards and Wilson. They still need another 3 guys. If you wanna go a committee approach for one of those 3 spots that's fine. In my view you have to put Monty in the pen because unless they sign another 2 arms they don't have enough reliable guys. I would keep him there, and then sign someone(maybe reed). Then for your final slot if you want to have Maples, grimm and Alvarez fight it out to see who wins that job more power to you. But I definitely wouldn't had 2 jobs to 3 of those guys. That's a pretty weak back end of your bullpen if you do.

Seeing that Reed and Holland are still available, ill bet one will be signed by cubs..

Their also interested in Tony Watson and Duensing still unsigned

I dont think their done with adding to the pen yet
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