Cubs offseason rumors/transactions

[CSF77]

Because he is a project just like Butler and Mills were projects. My point on him is you don't assume projects will be a part of your 25 man roster. If the pan out great. But you have to prepare as though they never make it out of spring training because if you assume he makes it and he's just shit in ST then you have no one else. He's not proven himself to be reliable enough to actually count on.

Put it this way, I'd count on Morrow, Cishek, Strop, Edwards and Wilson. They still need another 3 guys. If you wanna go a committee approach for one of those 3 spots that's fine. In my view you have to put Monty in the pen because unless they sign another 2 arms they don't have enough reliable guys. I would keep him there, and then sign someone(maybe reed). Then for your final slot if you want to have Maples, grimm and Alvarez fight it out to see who wins that job more power to you. But I definitely wouldn't had 2 jobs to 3 of those guys. That's a pretty weak back end of your bullpen if you do.

Fair enough.

I would put it at.

LOOGY: Alvarez, Zast

Long relief/swing: Montgomery, Butler

Then Grimm and Maples.

I see it as if they fail on Darvish then they have resourse to upgrade the pen.

As far as the have. I doubt they believe Alvarez and Maples are finished products but both have superior strike out stuff so they are going to be involved sooner or later. And yes it falls on preformance.

So I can agree with a 8th man in training. Grimm is proven. Like him or not he is not a rookie adapting. He is a vet and knows the league. I’m not his fan but he is a place holder for Maples and was retained for that reason. Maples is not ready yet. Now if Maples comes out and dominates S/T in general then I expect Grimm cut.

So looking at it Alvarez is it when it comes to LOOGY’s.. which is a reason why trading away Rosscup (who’s splits were heavy LOOGY but Maddon never used him that way) was short sighted. Then casting off his return for nothing. Again questionable. Now if Rosscup flounders in Col it becomes a non issue. If not it looks dumb.

But because there is no system LOOGY it kinda falls on Alvarez to have a shot to figure it out.

But this to me is a big reason to try to trade for Brad Hand if they ink Darvish. AAA will have Butler, Mills, Tseng. And Underwood in the rotation. Zast may end up in it also. Any of the 5 could be called up to spot start. Underwood is the only on that has not logged in a MLB start to date.

So holding onto Montgomery only makes sense if he starts or accepts a 2 inning role. The whole emergency starter bit is lessened with what they have in Iowa.

 

[anotheridiot]

Because he is a project just like Butler and Mills were projects. My point on him is you don't assume projects will be a part of your 25 man roster. If the pan out great. But you have to prepare as though they never make it out of spring training because if you assume he makes it and he's just shit in ST then you have no one else. He's not proven himself to be reliable enough to actually count on.

Put it this way, I'd count on Morrow, Cishek, Strop, Edwards and Wilson. They still need another 3 guys. If you wanna go a committee approach for one of those 3 spots that's fine. In my view you have to put Monty in the pen because unless they sign another 2 arms they don't have enough reliable guys. I would keep him there, and then sign someone(maybe reed). Then for your final slot if you want to have Maples, grimm and Alvarez fight it out to see who wins that job more power to you. But I definitely wouldn't had 2 jobs to 3 of those guys. That's a pretty weak back end of your bullpen if you do.

Is Hickey the same type of pitching coach like Bosio was that "needed" a project? I think there are enough projects here already in fixing Grimm.

 

[CSF77]

Is Hickey the same type of pitching coach like Bosio was that "needed" a project? I think there are enough projects here already in fixing Grimm.

Hickey is more of a guy that makes pitchers rethink how they sequence.

So if they have a strike out pitch Jim tells his guys to use it earlier in the count to get ahead vs sit on it for strike 2.

So say you have a plus slider he wants you to use it early also to force early strikes.

Also he believes that a good 4 seem thrown high (rising fastball) is a strike out pitch also. So he is the kind of coach that helps pitchers use the stuff that they have better. But more towards locating and sequencing what they possess.

Bosio was more of a mechanic. Jim Benedict is more like him with what he did in Pitt. Jim I believe will be more focused in the minors but I can see him in Mesa and given projects to fix all year vs the every day grind that Hickey will deal with.

 

[beckdawg]

Is Hickey the same type of pitching coach like Bosio was that "needed" a project? I think there are enough projects here already in fixing Grimm.

Honestly don't know but I don't think Alvarez being a project really has much to do with Hickey. I think the front office sees him as a guy that if you can get right is a huge value. For example, in 2016 when he was with Atlanta he was basically pitching at a Chapman level. The obvious difference is Chapman has proven to be that guy over a long period and Alvaraez was on a short sample that may be an illusion. The thing is that there's also varying levels of success there. He didn't pitch your typical ~60 innings as a reliever last year but if he had he would have been around 0.4-0.5 fWAR. Just as a reference point comparable to 2017 cubs that was roughly between Rondon and Koji. However, he has a lot more upside than that.

I think of it a bit like how you would take on Strop. If we exclude his half season in Baltimore the year he was traded because I can't be arsed to manually figure the values up, he had 106.0 IP with a 8.4 k/9 and a 5.3 bb/9 with a 3.48 ERA and a 1.434 WHIP. He got lost in 2013 with baltimore when his k rate ballooned up to 9.7 but so did his walk rate at 6.0. That gave him a 7.25 ERA and a 1.7 WHIP. Alvarez has thrown 48.0 innings in the majors with a 11.44 k/9 and a 4.13 bb/9 to go along with 5.06 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP. He's also left handed which helps.

I'd have to dig deeper into the numbers to tell you exactly what went wrong with regard to his whip. Just doing a quick look his BABIP has been .374 which is really high. Over 48 innings could just be short sample size but if there's something "wrong" which given he was available for next to nothing I'd imagine there is, it's probably that he has one dynamite pitch and needs to refine another. And quickly looking at those numbers that appears to be the case. His slider is really good with a 1.43 wSL/C value. Effectively wSL/C is the value better than average(average being 0) that a slider is. Anything from like -0.5-0.5 is roughly normal-ish. When you start getting into the 1 range it's pretty good. At 1.5 you're elite and 2 is basically best pitch in the league. For example, Kershaw's slider has a 1.95 wSL/C.

On the contrary, it appears Alvarez's fastball has been hot garbage. That has a -3.96 wFB/C. Average velocity on it is 93.1 so it's not exactly slow. My guess is he doesn't have movement on the pitch. So, when I call him a project, this is largely what you're talking about fixing. He doesn't need his fastball to be amazing but he needs to approach neutral. I'm not a pitching coach so I can't tell you the "how" on fixing him but I suspect they may look to teach him a 2 seam fastball or a cutter. Stats seem to indicate he was all on 4 seam which would make sense because typically 4 seam fastballs have velocity but lack movement.

 

[CSF77]

Honestly don't know but I don't think Alvarez being a project really has much to do with Hickey. I think the front office sees him as a guy that if you can get right is a huge value. For example, in 2016 when he was with Atlanta he was basically pitching at a Chapman level. The obvious difference is Chapman has proven to be that guy over a long period and Alvaraez was on a short sample that may be an illusion. The thing is that there's also varying levels of success there. He didn't pitch your typical ~60 innings as a reliever last year but if he had he would have been around 0.4-0.5 fWAR. Just as a reference point comparable to 2017 cubs that was roughly between Rondon and Koji. However, he has a lot more upside than that.

I think of it a bit like how you would take on Strop. If we exclude his half season in Baltimore the year he was traded because I can't be arsed to manually figure the values up, he had 106.0 IP with a 8.4 k/9 and a 5.3 bb/9 with a 3.48 ERA and a 1.434 WHIP. He got lost in 2013 with baltimore when his k rate ballooned up to 9.7 but so did his walk rate at 6.0. That gave him a 7.25 ERA and a 1.7 WHIP. Alvarez has thrown 48.0 innings in the majors with a 11.44 k/9 and a 4.13 bb/9 to go along with 5.06 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP. He's also left handed which helps.

I'd have to dig deeper into the numbers to tell you exactly what went wrong with regard to his whip. Just doing a quick look his BABIP has been .374 which is really high. Over 48 innings could just be short sample size but if there's something "wrong" which given he was available for next to nothing I'd imagine there is, it's probably that he has one dynamite pitch and needs to refine another. And quickly looking at those numbers that appears to be the case. His slider is really good with a 1.43 wSL/C value. Effectively wSL/C is the value better than average(average being 0) that a slider is. Anything from like -0.5-0.5 is roughly normal-ish. When you start getting into the 1 range it's pretty good. At 1.5 you're elite and 2 is basically best pitch in the league. For example, Kershaw's slider has a 1.95 wSL/C.

On the contrary, it appears Alvarez's fastball has been hot garbage. That has a -3.96 wFB/C. Average velocity on it is 93.1 so it's not exactly slow. My guess is he doesn't have movement on the pitch. So, when I call him a project, this is largely what you're talking about fixing. He doesn't need his fastball to be amazing but he needs to approach neutral. I'm not a pitching coach so I can't tell you the "how" on fixing him but I suspect they may look to teach him a 2 seam fastball or a cutter. Stats seem to indicate he was all on 4 seam which would make sense because typically 4 seam fastballs have velocity but lack movement.

93 MPH is not going to blow anyone away. That is why he should be limited to one out vs lefties where his slider is a weapon.

Sometimes all a pitcher needs to do is learn to master a pitch and that comes with location. We talk about it with a fastball and how a pitcher can get by with 80% fastballs but Little is said about a slider pitcher going full slider.

A lot of it has to do with location. If you locate it over the plate the pitch will sweep off of it. If you start it at the batter it sweeps over the plate for a strike.

So a guy like him you have to first master that pitch before adding a 2nd.

Even then by adding and subtracting velocity or changing arm slot will affect the brake amount and angle.

So honestly he is a guy that could break the normal way of thinking.

 

[beckdawg]

93 MPH is not going to blow anyone away.

Wade davis career average velocity on his fastball is 93.3. 93 is fine if you have movement on the pitch.

 

[anotheridiot]

93 MPH is not going to blow anyone away.

IT will when a pitcher utilizes the change of pace properly.

 

[beckdawg]

http://www.bleachernation.com/2018/...n-gerrit-cole-trade-many-implications-follow/

That's pretty interesting considering they are also in on Davrish supposedly.

 

[CSF77]

Wade davis career average velocity on his fastball is 93.3. 93 is fine if you have movement on the pitch.

I was looking at the -3 on the fastball vs a +1.4 on a slider.

It is far easier to create variance with a better than avg offering vs trying to take a vastly inferior pitch and try to get league avg.

The only way it would work is he starts both pitches at the same arm slot and location one sweeps 2nd rises. But it feels that he lacks a plus fastball to even concider it. I would work diffrent arm slots myself to create diffrent break angles then add and subtract on velocity to create more vs less break. That has a better chance of success vs trying to turn a minus pitch into a league avg one.

Marmol went heavy slider but it was the same sweep off the plate every offering and shelved his fastball. If he went with using his slider over the plate to set up his slider off the plate then changing arm slots to go from vertical to horizontal breaks he could have been devistation with that slider. Everyone thought he needed a counter when what he needed was to command his best pitch

 

[Diehardfan]

Wade davis career average velocity on his fastball is 93.3. 93 is fine if you have movement on the pitch.

Chapman was very hitable when he dropped under 100.....if you have no movement you damn sure better be throwing big time heat. At the other end of the spectrum you have Hendricks whose FB might top out at 90....he will occasionally blow one by a hitter only because every pitch he throws moves like a snake.

 

[beckdawg]

[video=youtube;iJOjHWr5jQc]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iJOjHWr5jQc[/video]

How i feel about this offseason being so boring.

 

[anotheridiot]

I think of it a bit like how you would take on Strop. If we exclude his half season in Baltimore the year he was traded because I can't be arsed to manually figure the values up, he had 106.0 IP with a 8.4 k/9 and a 5.3 bb/9 with a 3.48 ERA and a 1.434 WHIP. He got lost in 2013 with baltimore when his k rate ballooned up to 9.7 but so did his walk rate at 6.0. That gave him a 7.25 ERA and a 1.7 WHIP. Alvarez has thrown 48.0 innings in the majors with a 11.44 k/9 and a 4.13 bb/9 to go along with 5.06 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP. He's also left handed which helps.

.

I dont really consider much from anyone that can throw a cutter and was stuck in Baltimore. They just flat out did not allow cutters when Jake and Strop were there. They feel its the cause of all the TJ surgeries happening out there, ITs a modified curve ball and its fine if you are a guy that has flexibility in the joint, otherwise, it is a recipe for a year of rehab. It was not all magic with Bosio and Jake, Jake started to throw the cutter.

 

[CSF77]

I dont really consider much from anyone that can throw a cutter and was stuck in Baltimore. They just flat out did not allow cutters when Jake and Strop were there. They feel its the cause of all the TJ surgeries happening out there, ITs a modified curve ball and its fine if you are a guy that has flexibility in the joint, otherwise, it is a recipe for a year of rehab. It was not all magic with Bosio and Jake, Jake started to throw the cutter.

How it’s thrown:

Just offset the fingers slightly to the inside, and throw with fastball action. To start, you hold it like a fastball. The cutter grip is a little bit off of center. Throwing it is like a fastball, and right here at about the release point, turn over your wrist.

What the concern was losing MPH on the fastball. The belief was not being able to get behind the fastball properly with the 4 seem grip.

Not sure if it is proven or theory but seeing Jake drop MPH 2 years in a row it brings up concern.

 

[anotheridiot]

How it’s thrown:

Just offset the fingers slightly to the inside, and throw with fastball action. To start, you hold it like a fastball. The cutter grip is a little bit off of center. Throwing it is like a fastball, and right here at about the release point, turn over your wrist.

What the concern was losing MPH on the fastball. The belief was not being able to get behind the fastball properly with the 4 seem grip.

Not sure if it is proven or theory but seeing Jake drop MPH 2 years in a row it brings up concern.

But the ones who can cut it in and out are twisting the wrist in the opposite direction, like a screw ball and that is where these guys start popping the elbow.

 

[CSF77]

But the ones who can cut it in and out are twisting the wrist in the opposite direction, like a screw ball and that is where these guys start popping the elbow.

Not thrown that way. What you are talking is more 2 seem

 

[beckdawg]

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-status-of-the-scouts-vs-stats-debate/

So i'm reading this and while it's not really related to the topic at hand it's pretty interesting. Kiley most recently was with the Braves. So the guy actually worked in baseball. The part that I found most interesting was this.

I’ve also seen concrete examples of the limitations of this approach. I’m aware of of a high profile instance of a progressive club turning down an attractive deal for one clearly superior prospect, instead choosing multiple lesser prospects, an example that would’ve shocked readers at the time and still would today. When I asked a member of that front office to explain the thought process, he said that they saw minor leaguers as gambles. Getting only one player for a premium asset means that the one prospect could bust and give them nothing (read: bad PR on a high profile trade), so they opted to diversify with multiple assets. I’m almost certain this club would’ve traded three similar assets for a premium prospect in a vacuum, so the PR of a high profile trade made them take different players than they would normally. I’m also aware of enough trade talks over the years with this club and other clubs with a similar process to see multiple examples of this thinking.

 

[CSF77]

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-status-of-the-scouts-vs-stats-debate/

So i'm reading this and while it's not really related to the topic at hand it's pretty interesting. Kiley most recently was with the Braves. So the guy actually worked in baseball. The part that I found most interesting was this.

It kinda leads into depth. If I had a system like the Cubs that had 12 B rated prospects and no A listed I would only want A listed in return in trades.

A team like NYY has A listed in hand and that method would work as they are adding depth. But seeing it is the Yanks I doubt they accept low profile guys on returns. They demanded Blue chips every deal.

So it really depends on the seller. It is a transaction and the deal is going to be based off of wants more than needs.

 

[beckdawg]

Interesting.

 

[CSF77]

Interesting.

I was pretty sure this was going down. Tells me that Darvish was more of a outside shot.

Add to it how he waited for Minn it seems a 2 team bid off right now. Both teams have strong cores but honestly it would be a upset if Minn won. Market size is the obvious issue. But Minn has some internal issues going on with Sano’s sexual assault a glaring issue and Bryant’s news is his game of thrones birthday cake.

Seriously.

 

[anotheridiot]

Not thrown that way. What you are talking is more 2 seem

I have seen it thrown each way. When you twist the wrist opposite for a righty to cut in to a righty, you are stressing the elbow, the curve ball is a quicker twist.