David Price to the Red Sox

[brett05]

Career numbers:

Price: 23.4% K-rate, 6.3% BB-rate, 17.1% K-BB rate, 1.13 WHIP, 3.19 FIP, 3.35 xFIP, 3.37 SIERA, 9.0% HR/FB
Greinke: 21.9% K-rate, 5.9% BB-rate, 16.0% K-BB rate, 1.18 WHIP, 3.31 FIP, 3.47 xFIP, 3.50 SIERA, 9.1% HR/FB)

Price is 10 months younger than Greinke and has 30%+ fewer innings on his arm

Steamer 2016 projections:
Price: 2.99 FIP, 21.2% K-BB%, 1.06 WHIP
Greinke: 3.39 FIP, 16.8 K-BB%, 1.15 WHIP

Which pitcher was it you wanted again?

I can't take credit for throwing a few of these ideas together, but this is what made me change my mind.

I still want Grienke. I really believe outside of the drug aided era pitchers who throw harder break down faster. I know I have nothing but opinion (aka I have no factual evidence) but I truly believe that Zach will be better than Price over the next four seasons. I'd say six, but I am not sure Zach wants a deal more than 4.
Just last season Zach was better. But I see the numbers and you are right, David is very impressive.

 

[JimJohnson]

Once again check his playoff stats. They're horrific. People were using Price's poor playoff showings as a reason not to get him so why doesn't the argument apply to Miller as well?

The Mets had deGrom going in G3 of the NLCS. Do you honestly think Miller measures up to deGrom?[/QUOTE]

cool, way to go....you found one team that has a better #3 than miller...the team considered to have the most starting pitching in baseball. how about we compare him to the brewers #3 starter? bet miller looks a hell of a lot better than that guy.

also, I was never one of those who had concern over david price's postseason record so I am certainly not going to freak out over 13.2 innings pitched in the postseason by Shelby miller either

One team? Dude they are the team to be in the NL. We need to beat them to advance? That means we need to match or surpass their staff. It's a fairly basic concept unless you have some inside information which leads you to believe that one or more of the Mets staff will get hurt during the upcoming season.

 

[JZsportsfan]

The more I think about it, the more I hope the Cubs just go after Heyward. Adding Heyward would give the Cubs exactly what they need. A high OBP guy, with great defense in the OF. This would then give the Cubs the chance to trade Soler or Schwarber, and Castro or Baez for pitching. They could really get 2 MOR to TOR arms with those trade assets. If they could sign Heyward, and then flip Soler + a prospect to the Braves for Milller the Cubs would be in a much better spot next year IMO.

The Royals won a WS based off of bullpen, OF defense, and contract hitting. Heyward does a lot to help the Cubs reach that mold

 

[Parade_Rain]

I still want Grienke. I really believe outside of the drug aided era pitchers who throw harder break down faster. I know I have nothing but opinion (aka I have no factual evidence) but I truly believe that Zach will be better than Price over the next four seasons. I'd say six, but I am not sure Zach wants a deal more than 4.
Just last season Zach was better. But I see the numbers and you are right, David is very impressive.

Greinke 2015 BABIP was .229 compared to a career mark of .298. What do you think the chances of him repeating that are?

 

[knoxville7]

One team? Dude they are the team to be in the NL. We need to beat them to advance? That means we need to match or surpass their staff. It's a fairly basic concept unless you have some inside information which leads you to believe that one or more of the Mets staff will get hurt during the upcoming season.

really? that's interesting to know that the mets are going to automatically be back in the playoffs again next year. im sure their fanbase will be excited to know that JimJohnson has anointed them the top team in the NL here in December

 

[DanTown]

David Price at 217 over 7 years is a lot of money but I question how he's not worth it. Even if I lowball WAR/million, 217 means he has to be about a 30 WAR pitcher over the next 7 years. Seeing as he most compares in people's mind to CC Sabathia, here is CC's WAR by age (Price will be 30 next year)

30 - 5.1
31 - 6.4
32 - 4.7
33 - 2.6
34 - .1
35 - 1.2

TOTAL WAR: 20.1 over 6 years (his 7 years as a Yankee are 26).

So while we can say "hahaha, that's too much money", it's just money. So basically, if Price is similar to CC at the start and he ages better (which is highly likely considering as CC was an alcoholic, overweight, and didn't have great 3/4 pitches like Price does), he clearly will be worth that deal. And seeing as the Red Sox had a drastic need for a David Price level starter, I'm not going to say they overpaid. Guys like Price are typically worth MORE than their contracts because the level of players who can be 5-6 WAR players is incredibly small.

I'm also not going to say the Cubs should have signed him because they simply don't have the same need for David Price as Boston did. 7/217 for the Cubs would have been a deal that provided them coverage on giving Jake a 30+ deal (if he's worth it) when Jake will be 32. It would have been great to get Price but it's ok that they didn't as long as they simply find another 4+ WAR pitcher. I think the only two guys left of that are Cueto and Grienke.

 

[Gustavus Adolphus]

What we've learned is that the Cubs are not the team players who are free agents want to be a part of. Nor is Price's earlier comments about the Cubs anything but an example as I said. And finally Joe is not a selling point apparently

The window is small folks. Was that a heavy set woman I just saw? Probably not.

Come on Cubs and step up!

This is a steaming pile of something here.

 

[DanTown]

I still want Grienke. I really believe outside of the drug aided era pitchers who throw harder break down faster. I know I have nothing but opinion (aka I have no factual evidence) but I truly believe that Zach will be better than Price over the next four seasons. I'd say six, but I am not sure Zach wants a deal more than 4.
Just last season Zach was better. But I see the numbers and you are right, David is very impressive.

Grienke wants 5/6 years at equal/higher AAV as Price.

 

[JimJohnson]

really? that's interesting to know that the mets are going to automatically be back in the playoffs again next year. im sure their fanbase will be excited to know that JimJohnson has anointed them the top team in the NL here in December

Yea you're right, they suck. WTF was I thinking.

 

[knoxville7]

Yea you're right, they suck. WTF was I thinking.

not saying that at all. just to gear your roster based off another teams roster who resides in a separate division is dumb. the mets have arguably the best rotation in baseball and you suggest the cubs have to get to that level....that's a near impossible thing to do when you consider the mets #1 in that category. do the cubs need a good rotation? of course they do, but they already had one of the best pitching staffs in the national league last year. so adding a legit #3 to a part of your team that was already a strength is a luxury most teams cant attain. the real issue the cubs had last year was situational hitting. I expect that to improve somewhat due to all the youngsters being a year older with a little more experience, but its also why I feel that if they have 1 big move in them this offseason they should go after heyward. trade soler for miller and you gain your #3 starter and gain better situational hitting and better defense with heyward(who also would add another lefty bat to the lineup).

 

[ZAN]

One team? Dude they are the team to be in the NL. We need to beat them to advance? That means we need to match or surpass their staff. It's a fairly basic concept unless you have some inside information which leads you to believe that one or more of the Mets staff will get hurt during the upcoming season.

You're assuming 3 things.

1. The Mets O can sustain itself with the loss of Cespedes & Murphy (yes, I'm assuming they lose both judging by the Zobrist rumors)
2. The Nationals suck again
3. The Braves/Marlins/Phillies each give the Mets 19 half-assed efforts a piece to allow the Mets to creep into the playoffs with 90 wins (again).

Yes I understand that the Mets won't be starting 70 games next year with Colon/Niese/spot starter next year either, but I honestly don't think the Mets are the team to beat. They got hot at the right time...and it wasn't enough. No one saw the Cubs OR the Mets being in the NLCS. Let's cool the jets on trying to start an arms race with one team. Nothing is guaranteed, even for us.

We go smart $ on players we think can help us, find the right trade partners. And hopefully in October we are looking at 95-100 wins again. There's zero reason to sell the farm for Shelby Miller/Julio Teheran because the Mets have 4 guys that throw hard and we need someone with velocity too. The Royals won the WS by putting the ball in play and a bullpen. They had under performing Cueto, Yordano, and Volquez as their 1-3 in the playoffs and got a lot of innings out of Chris Young as well. Not nearly the rotation that the Mets had.

 

[DJMoore_is_fat]

Mets won't even make the playoffs next year. In 2003 we had a better trio of young stud SP's (Prior, Wood, Zambrano) and look how it turned out. Highly doubt de Grom, Thor, and Harvey all reproduce their 2015 run again in 2016.

Plus losing the heart of their order will hurt. They won't be the same team.

 

[JimJohnson]

What if Giants go out and sign Greinke? Then their 1/2 combo beats ours so we better have the advantage at the bottom of the rotation.

 

[CSF77]

Dodgers had the best 1-2 last year and they lost to the Mets

Right now it takes 1-3 being very good and a workable 4.

 

[JimJohnson]

Dodgers had the best 1-2 last year and they lost to the Mets

Right now it takes 1-3 being very good and a workable 4.

Giants >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Dodgers, get real man. Giants have won 3 WS since 2010 and should compete again in 2016. If they add Greinke to their already potent team, hold on to your nuts.

 

[DanTown]

Dodgers had the best 1-2 last year and they lost to the Mets

Right now it takes 1-3 being very good and a workable 4.

And that Dodgers team had how many good bats in their lineup? There is no "you need X" to win approach unless X is quality players.

The Royals top 3 SP? Cueto/Volquez/Ventura. Not sure how the Royals won with such a poor top 3.

 

[PickSix]

Giants >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Dodgers, get real man. Giants have won 3 WS since 2010 and should compete again in 2016. If they add Greinke to their already potent team, hold on to your nuts.

I think there are quite a few on here that will do that regardless of where Greinke signs.
jk?

 

[CSF77]

Giants >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Dodgers, get real man. Giants have won 3 WS since 2010 and should compete again in 2016. If they add Greinke to their already potent team, hold on to your nuts.

Their bread and butter was their rotation. Cain is not that guy anymore. MadBum is a strong 1/2 but he is not Shaw.

Add to it the Giants got strong performances from Panda. Gone. That team is not this powerhouse. It is ok at O and really only has Bum-and the bums for a rotation.

Dodgers had/have more talent. They had a sharp drop off in the rotation due to injury. Opening day they had a strong 1-4. Joc fell off the table in the 2nd half but his contact rate plain sucked.

 

[DanTown]

Their bread and butter was their rotation. Cain is not that guy anymore. MadBum is a strong 1/2 but he is not Shaw.

Add to it the Giants got strong performances from Panda. Gone. That team is not this powerhouse. It is ok at O and really only has Bum-and the bums for a rotation.

Dodgers had/have more talent. They had a sharp drop off in the rotation due to injury. Opening day they had a strong 1-4. Joc fell off the table in the 2nd half but his contact rate plain sucked.

The Giants won 84 games last year. They had a run differential of +69.
The Cubs won 97 games last year. They had a run differential of +81.

The Giants were 19-28 in one run games.
The Cubs were 34-21 in one run games.

The Giants SP had TWO guys with FIP under 4.00 and they only made 51 starts.
The Cubs had six SP with FIP under 4.00 and they made 132 starts.

The Giants had two regular players (Pence, Panik) miss 60 games.
The Cubs two guys deal with injuries (Soler, Montero) and a lot of their missed games were swallowed by Kyle Schwarber/Chris Coghlan.

I don't understand why people think the Cubs and the Giants are that different because they simply aren't.

 

[TL1961]

Was thinking trading Solerfor Miller. Then sign Zobrist for 2B. Word he is looking for 4/60. So 15 per. At that point Castro becomes expendable so trade him for a few arms.

After that sign Span to a 2 year deal.

Puts the line up at Span, Zobrist, Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, Schwarber, Russell, Montero

Payroll should add a net 20 mil so that gives them room for flexibility mid season.

I like the idea of having strong OBA at the top.

Paying 20 mil to shark would be unwise.

Yeah, let's pay $15 million per year for a guy to play 2nd (while approaching his 50th birthday) so that we can free up Castro

Because we obviously have no other player on our roster who can play 2nd!!!!!!!!!!!!

Wow.