Emma: Ranking the Bear's Best Options at QB

[didshereallysaythat]

exactly my point, how is this guy ever going to be an upgrade over Cutler? I would say 4 of those INTs were not entirely his fault, but when he makes it to the NFL he will not be on a team that has so much more talent then the opposition.

He had some bad throws and decisions, no doubt. The red zone INT against Pitt in the 4th quarter was a horrible one.

But at the very minimum, he makes so many plays that are great that it offsets the bad. He accounted for 50 TDs last year alone. That's still a 3 to 1 ratio playing a tough schedule.

 

[satchice]

Based on what I saw, I didn't see a guy throwing into coverage a lot or making a ton of bad decisions. I saw a guy where the majority of his interceptions were simply bad throws or ball placement when throwing to a WR that was one on one. So the interceptions are simply a function of the underlying issue he as with accuracy and ball placement rather than poor decision making.

Now you can go review and let us know if you agree or disagree but this is why interceptions are not a good predictor of success in the NFL. They are merely a symptom of a disease and not the disease itself. So the point here is rather than talk about symptoms without any understanding of the underlying causes, why not get to the heart of the disease and then conclude on whether it's treatable or not. If you think Watson can clean up his accuracy and placement issues then it's less likely for the disease to carry over to the NFL. If you think he can't then it's more likely.

This whole time I have yet to see any discussion by you regarding what causes his interceptions so you seem to have no understanding over what those causes are and whether they are correctable.

Did you seriously just watch the YouTube video that PolarBear just posted? If you didn't then you need to watch it. If you did you need to watch it again.

You can not honestly blame his accuracy for most of those INTs, it is either he can not read the defense, cant process the game in real time, or he needs glasses! Accuracy and arm strength is not his problem, this is not a guy you are fixing by forcing him to change his mechanics. His mechanics are probably the best thing he has going for him.

 

[bearmick]

exactly my point, how is this guy ever going to be an upgrade over Cutler? I would say 4 of those INTs were not entirely his fault, but when he makes it to the NFL he will not be on a team that has so much more talent then the opposition.

He had two huge games where the opposition's talent was far greater and he shred them twice for over 800 yards passing, 8 TDs and 1 pick. These NC games against Alabama were by far the closest thing to an NFL defense you can experience in NCAA football. His turnovers didn't increase against tougher opposition, he played to their level and smoked the shit out of them.

 

[didshereallysaythat]

Did you seriously just watch the YouTube video that PolarBear just posted? If you didn't then you need to watch it. If you did you need to watch it again.

You can not honestly blame his accuracy for most of those INTs, it is either he can not read the defense, cant process the game in real time, or he needs glasses! Accuracy and arm strength is not his problem, this is not a guy you are fixing by forcing him to change his mechanics. His mechanics are probably the best thing he has going for him.

You can't fix decision making? Ofcourse you can. Just because no one could fix Cutler's doesn't mean that Watson can't. There were a handful of INTs where the initial read was covered up but he threw it anyway. Coaching can fix this.

He has the skill set you want. No one is saying that he is 100% NFL ready right now at this very moment.

 

[remydat]

exactly my point, how is this guy ever going to be an upgrade over Cutler? I would say 4 of those INTs were not entirely his fault, but when he makes it to the NFL he will not be on a team that has so much more talent then the opposition.

Your point is illogical for the simple reason that teams draft players because they expect to grow and develop. Some do and some don't but it's illogical to think that a young QB can learn in the NFL but somehow that learning is limited to everything else except throwing interceptions.

By your logic, no player ever gets better and they remain eternally the same player they were in college which is obviously incorrect.

 

[remydat]

Did you seriously just watch the YouTube video that PolarBear just posted? If you didn't then you need to watch it. If you did you need to watch it again.

You can not honestly blame his accuracy for most of those INTs, it is either he can not read the defense, cant process the game in real time, or he needs glasses! Accuracy and arm strength is not his problem, this is not a guy you are fixing by forcing him to change his mechanics. His mechanics are probably the best thing he has going for him.

Lol, I was the one that broke down all his interceptions both years in this thread.

http://www.chicitysports.com/forum/showthread.php/85314-The-Book-on-Deshaun-Watson

Here is what I posted. Feel free to discuss.

Found this the other day and thought I would go through his interceptions

[video=youtube;OGP_uJfqzL0]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OGP_uJfqzL0[/video]

1. Good decision but terrible pass. A constant theme with Watson is he will throw deep to his WRs when they are one on one. In this instance he doesn't give his WR a chance.

2. Seems to be some sort of miscommunication with Williams (he missed all last year) but still seems like a terrible read given all the players in the area.

3. This one seems to be a combination of a great read by the DB and the WR drifting and waiting on the ball instead of attacking the ball resulting in the DB jumping the route. I have a hard time blaming this one on Watson.

4. Miscommunication between Williams and Watson as it appears as the announcers say that Watson wants to throw the curl but Williams runs an out route.

5. Good decision, terrible ball placement as the ball is behind Watson.

6. All on the WR. Ball is right in his chest and not only doesn't he catch it, it bounces in the air for the pick.

7. Another one on one but the WR stumbles out of his route and it's not the greatest pass by Watson.

8. This one is a pretty athletic play by the DE/OLB underneath. I guess you could say he should have elevated his pass more but that's just the type of pick that's going to happen from time to time IMO.

9. Watson gets burned by the underneath guy again although this one seems to be more the result of Watson not seeing/reading the coverage as opposed to the one above where he says the guy and tries to throw it over him.

10. Bad throw and read as CB fakes blitz but then drops back in coverage.

11. This one Watson expects the Safety to bite on the inside slant but instead he stops and stays outside allowing him to pick off the pass

12. Good read against the blitz, terrible throw

13. Another instance where Watson is tricked by an underneath guy dropping back.

14. Good read as Watson goes through his progressions but the pass is a bit high

15. Tipped pass at the LoS.

16. From the playoff game and one where Williams doesn't help him much as he drifts on his route and slips.

17. This was the amazing Hooker int where dude just covers massive amount of ground. Not really going to fault Watson there as he made the right read and throw Imo.

In conclusion, the themes I see from the above is Watson needs to work on his accuracy a bit and Watson needs to watch for the underneath guy or disguised coverages.

 

[satchice]

He had some bad throws and decisions, no doubt. The red zone INT against Pitt in the 4th quarter was a horrible one.

But at the very minimum, he makes so many plays that are great that it offsets the bad. He accounted for 50 TDs last year alone. That's still a 3 to 1 ratio playing a tough schedule.

BUT those great plays are also due to have an extreme advantage in talent compared to most of the teams he is playing against... He will never have that in the NFL, unless a team like Pittsburgh, Dallas, or Atlanta draft him and cut there starter and even then it wont be close to what he is use to.

There are most likely 5 Clemson players on the offense alone who will be drafted... How many Pitt players do you think get drafted ? maybe 1 in the late late rounds?? How about Troy?

 

[remydat]

And from his sophomore year.

[video=youtube;ApyOs_tH-mU]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ApyOs_tH-mU[/video]

1. Bad pass by Watson.

2. Great one handed catch by the CB but Watson shouldn't have thrown the ball IMO as the CB has safety help over the top.

3. Watson throwing it deep in a one on one and his WR falls and doesn't give him much help.

4. Another one on one and the WR just keeps drifting instead of challenging the WR for the ball

5. DB/LB dropping back into a zone an Watson doesn't read it.

6. Another deep throw where Watson doesn't anticipate the S with deep coverage responsibility

7. Watson hit as he throws and the ball wobbles

8. Pass is high but the WR probably could have made a better play on the ball.

9. Not a really good throw at all in a one on one

10. Another guy getting him underneath.

11. Tipped pass

12. Watson scrambles and throws it up to his guy in a one on one. Given he was drifting backwards, not a good decision.

13. Seems like a bit of miscommunication as WR doesn't look for the ball. Not sure I would have made the throw regardless.

In comparing his two years, I would say Watson, threw a lot more Ints his sophomore year trying to throw deep and got fooled by deep safeties more. He seemed to have cleaned that aspect of his game up entirely in his 2nd year perhaps aided by the fact a lot of those deep balls were going to Williams who is better at fighting for deep balls.

In both years he seems to struggle with ball placement on some of his throws although it appears teams tried to trick him with disguised coverages his second year. The one thing I didn't see a lot of in both years is Watson throwing into coverage as it seems a lot of his picks are derived from him liking to throw deep when his WRs are in one on one situations rather than throwing into coverage.

 

[BearFanJohn]

I can't believe that Washington is going to let Cousins go but if they would then I think he would be the best choice. He isn't a "retread" he is a starting and successful QB in the NFL. They don't come around very often and they almost never hit FA. And he is a more proven commodity than JG. Any of the draft picks would be crap shoots. I am not against taking a QB in the draft; at #3 or otherwise. But I would not dismiss Cousins simply because the Bears would have to pay him starting money.

 

[dbldrew]

No the article says quite clearly that for the 38 quarterbacks looked at, their collective interception rate was 2.3% in college and it rises to 3.4% in the NFL. What the article is saying is that you can't predict which QB will be responsible for that increase because there are guys with higher rates in the NFL than in college but also guys like Ryan with lower rates than in college. Collectively, the rate increases but it's not as simple as the guys who threw a lot of picks are the ones driving that increase.

actually it does show that. The scatter plot shows that about 90% of QB increase there int% going into the pros.

And the reason why the scales are different is because you had some guys that were absolutely terrible so you had to increase the scale of the NFL vertical line to represent it.

No the scale could be 1-7 on both x/y plots and keep the 1:1 ratio Or even 1-7 on pro and 1-4 on college would still keep the 1:1 ratio. Changing the scale to jam most of the plots into the center to make it look like there is really no change is dishonest

Also Winston Int rate has actually declined in the NFL. He was at 3.9% his last college season. He was at 2.8% in first year and 3.2% his second year. He's also thrown for over 4,000 yards both years, has 50 TDs passing, 7 rushing. and this past year he led a young Bucs team to a 9-7 record.

It's almost as if Interceptions don't tell the whole story of a QB.

That sounds like Cutlers 3% and 2.9% his first 2 full years as a starter! Dont we already have that? Why waist a pick on another INT heavy QB?

 

[didshereallysaythat]

BUT those great plays are also due to have an extreme advantage in talent compared to most of the teams he is playing against... He will never have that in the NFL, unless a team like Pittsburgh, Dallas, or Atlanta draft him and cut there starter and even then it wont be close to what he is use to.

There are most likely 5 Clemson players on the offense alone who will be drafted... How many Pitt players do you think get drafted ? maybe 1 in the late late rounds?? How about Troy?

By that logic, you should never draft anyone from Alabama's defense since most of those players are being drafted in the NFL.

 

[Da Coach]

#1 cousins by a long shot
#2 Jimmy G
#3 Watson + Romo

Those are three options that make us a lot better than last year. Pace needs to pull the trigger on one of them

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

 

[satchice]

You can't fix decision making? Ofcourse you can. Just because no one could fix Cutler's doesn't mean that Watson can't. There were a handful of INTs where the initial read was covered up but he threw it anyway. Coaching can fix this.

He has the skill set you want. No one is saying that he is 100% NFL ready right now at this very moment.

So we agree he has need to work on his bad decision making, okay that's fine. I don't see any glaring problem in Trubisky or Garopollo's play that needs fixed. Kizer, Mahommes, and Webb all need things fixed as well, but they all have something in there skillset that is better then the rest. What in Watson's skillset makes him better then the other top 5 options at QB?

 

[remydat]

actually it does show that. The scatter plot shows that about 90% of QB increase there int% going into the pros.

No the scale could be 1-7 on both x/y plots and keep the 1:1 ratio Or even 1-7 on pro and 1-4 on college would still keep the 1:1 ratio. Changing the scale to jam most of the plots into the center to make it look like there is really no change is dishonest

That sounds like Cutlers 3% and 2.9% his first 2 full years as a starter! Dont we already have that? Why waist a pick on another INT heavy QB?

There are plot points are all over the graph, and the trendline even has a negative slope, meaning a higher college interception rate leads to a lower NFL rate (no causation, of course). For every Robert Griffin III who keeps a sub-2 percent interception rate from college to his rookie season, there’s an Alex Smith more than quintupling his interception rate, from 1.3 to 6.7 percent. There are also players like Matt Ryan with the fourth-highest inception rate of these quarterbacks in college who decreased that rate in each of his first three pro seasons.

Not sure what to tell you. The trendline has a negative slope as the above notes. Also there is nothing dishonest in the scale as the article starts off by stating upfront that interception rates are higher overall. Unless you are telling me that someone can't read then they have all the information they need to put things in context.

And Cutler's first 2 years as a starter were fine for a developing QB. The problem with Cutler is he regressed not that his first 2 years were awful. So I don't know what you are talking about.

 

[remydat]

BUT those great plays are also due to have an extreme advantage in talent compared to most of the teams he is playing against... He will never have that in the NFL, unless a team like Pittsburgh, Dallas, or Atlanta draft him and cut there starter and even then it wont be close to what he is use to.

There are most likely 5 Clemson players on the offense alone who will be drafted... How many Pitt players do you think get drafted ? maybe 1 in the late late rounds?? How about Troy?

What extreme advantage in talent did Watson have in 2015 without Mike Williams when he tore up Bama's difference the first time?

http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/stats/_/id/228/year/2015

Is Charone Peake some extreme talent as a 7th round pick by the Jets this past year? That was his 2nd leading WR last year.

He didn't have a single WR over 1,000 yards and none of these guys are 1st round picks. The highest rated guy here is his TE Leggett who had 525 yards last year.

 

[satchice]

Your point is illogical for the simple reason that teams draft players because they expect to grow and develop. Some do and some don't but it's illogical to think that a young QB can learn in the NFL but somehow that learning is limited to everything else except throwing interceptions.

By your logic, no player ever gets better and they remain eternally the same player they were in college which is obviously incorrect.

Nope, sorry not my logic at all... Of course players progress, but some things are easier to fix.. Some guys don't need to be fixed at all... I guess with Watson they wont know until they get him in to interview him. Then again, Jay is supposedly great in the film and meeting room. Just cannot process the game in real time. Watson seems like a high risk low reward guy.

 

[didshereallysaythat]

So we agree he has need to work on his bad decision making, okay that's fine. I don't see any glaring problem in Trubisky or Garopollo's play that needs fixed. Kizer, Mahommes, and Webb all need things fixed as well, but they all have something in there skillset that is better then the rest. What in Watson's skillset makes him better then the other top 5 options at QB?

The "problem" with Garopollo is the lack of games played either in the NFL or at a high competition in college. The skillset appears to be there for me; pocket awareness, accuracy, release, etc. I just have not seen it consistently against superb competition.

I think that Trubusky, Watson and Kizer all have the skillset necessary to be very good at the next level. I just like Watson the most because he was consistent 2 years in a row.

 

[remydat]

Nope, sorry not my logic at all... Of course players progress, but some things are easier to fix.. Some guys don't need to be fixed at all... I guess with Watson they wont know until they get him in to interview him. Then again, Jay is supposedly great in the film and meeting room. Just cannot process the game in real time. Watson seems like a high risk low reward guy.

Yeah because Cutler's intangibles are as great as Watson's? Is it possible Jay didn't get better because he doesn't possess the personality and intangibles that would have allowed him to get better? He won 11 games his entire 4 years starting. Watson won more than that his first year as a starter. Of course, Cutler played on a worse team but in college, I would expect a top QB to be able to elevate his team somewhat to at least say get to .500 and Cutler has never shown any ability to do that in college or the NFL really on a consistent basis.

 

[satchice]

The "problem" with Garopollo is the lack of games played either in the NFL or at a high competition in college. The skillset appears to be there for me; pocket awareness, accuracy, release, etc. I just have not seen it consistently against superb competition.

I think that Trubusky, Watson and Kizer all have the skillset necessary to be very good at the next level. I just like Watson the most because he was consistent 2 years in a row.

Fair enough...
That is where we disagree, you value college wins over everything else and I value players skillset over everything.. I think we agree that both Jimmy and Mitch are the most talented but also the least experienced against top college competition and Watson is the least talented, but most experienced.

 

[didshereallysaythat]

Fair enough...
That is where we disagree, you value college wins over everything else and I value players skillset over everything.. I think we agree that both Jimmy and Mitch are the most talented but also the least experienced against top college competition and Watson is the least talented, but most experienced.

Physically, probably. But I consider mental makeup to be part of a skillset as well. Watson IMO has the best leadership of all of them.