IST Cubs at Pirates

[Bear Pride]

YES! Nice job Lester. Just the game I was looking for from him. Kudos to Maddon for giving him a chance to finish it off as well! Great defense as well from the Cubs. Definitely playoff type of baseball, imo. Cubs Win!

 

[Parade_Rain]

Attaboy, Lester!

 

[DanTown]

That has nothing to do with the playoff push.

Russell's in the lineup for his glove, which is massively more valuable than any batting you may or may not get from Starlin. He's obviously starting to feel the grind (he's 21 and the 134 games he's already played are a career high) but his glove is too valuable to sit. And you run the risk of the message you send to a 21 y/o who you start all year but then slumps and you pull him. Then when he starts next year, he worries any slump will bench him again and then he's out of whack mentally.

The Cubs have made their bed with the SS spot and any changes now are potentially disastrous in the long term.

 

[DanTown]

Jon Lester's 15th start this year where he went 7+ innings and gave up 2ER or less yet only his seventh win in those starts.

His 15 such starts tie him for third with Scherzer, John Lackey behind only Kershaw and Grienke (who have 17 each).

Jake Arrieta goes tomorrow and he also has 14 such starts (7+ 2ER or less). Jon's had a few terrible starts but he's been good a lot of this year and had some horrific luck.

 

[fatbeard]

I hope Arrieta can pitch a complete game shutout in the WC game or we will lose it...... If we even make it to that game...

The meatball is strong with this one.

 

[chibears55]

You guys realize he's been worth 2.1 fWAR this year for $9 mil right? Going rate per win is typically $7 mil or so the past few years. He's frankly still a major bargain. Also, consider what the #4/5 would have looked like without him. The #5 starter had largely been a disaster so unless you were getting something else amazing I doubt you'd find a better way to spend the money.

Apr to June 15 starts 95.2 IP 2.93 ERA

Jul to Sept. 13 starts 61 IP. 5.01 ERA

Im sure his 2.1 fwar came in first 15 starts, last 13 not so much

Hammel career has been mediocre overall except for his first half last year and this year. .

They dont need someone amazing for a 4th or 5th starter, just someone who not going to shit the bed in 2nd half when you need them to keep team in games. ..

 

[CSF77]

The key for Hammel is his slider command. It has been off except for that last game he dominated. That game his comman of his slider was on.

He is a #4 pitcher. The fact he is too co-dependent on his slider holds him back. That said he has been ok. His first has was dominate but wasted due to low run support.

Cubs do need a upgrade. I don't think it will take trading out Hammel but adding a better #3 option.

Zimmerman would be a strong choice in F/A or make a trade.

 

[CSF77]

On Russel/Castro/Baez. They are going to have to either trade Soler or Castro. There is little else to debate on.

 

[fatbeard]

On Russel/Castro/Baez. They are going to have to either trade Soler or Castro. There is little else to debate on.

Soler isn't going anywhere and there's no debate on that either. Castro's fate is sealed.

 

[SilenceS]

Russell's in the lineup for his glove, which is massively more valuable than any batting you may or may not get from Starlin. He's obviously starting to feel the grind (he's 21 and the 134 games he's already played are a career high) but his glove is too valuable to sit. And you run the risk of the message you send to a 21 y/o who you start all year but then slumps and you pull him. Then when he starts next year, he worries any slump will bench him again and then he's out of whack mentally.

The Cubs have made their bed with the SS spot and any changes now are potentially disastrous in the long term.

Thats a bit over dramatic and he is now at over 50% k rate for the month of September. Yet again, if he continues to struggle his glove isn't substantially better than Baez or Castro if the bat is no where near. This isn't July. This is a playoff push. Maddon said moving Castro off short probably wouldn't have happened if he wasn't hitting so bad. I would sense they think the same about Russell. This isn't to hurt anyone feelings. This is putting your best lineup to win every night.

 

[chibears55]

Thats a bit over dramatic and he is now at over 50% k rate for the month of September. Yet again, if he continues to struggle his glove isn't substantially better than Baez or Castro if the bat is no where near. This isn't July. This is a playoff push. Maddon said moving Castro off short probably wouldn't have happened if he wasn't hitting so bad. I would sense they think the same about Russell. This isn't to hurt anyone feelings. This is putting your best lineup to win every night.

I dont disagree with you but I do think his fielding is what keeping him in the lineup...

If it me, id give him a few days off against RHers just because i think he hitting that rookie wall and you wanna try and get him rejuvenated for hopefully a playoff run. .
Especially with Soler due back soon, you wanna try and get both Soler and Baez ABs to get ready for playoffs..

 

[beckdawg]

Apr to June 15 starts 95.2 IP 2.93 ERA

Jul to Sept. 13 starts 61 IP. 5.01 ERA

Im sure his 2.1 fwar came in first 15 starts, last 13 not so much

Hammel career has been mediocre overall except for his first half last year and this year. .

They dont need someone amazing for a 4th or 5th starter, just someone who not going to shit the bed in 2nd half when you need them to keep team in games. ..

The other side of the argument here is if Hammel doesn't have a sub 3 ERA in the first half the cubs probably aren't in the #2 WC spot. Either way, his first half justifies the money they spent on him. Your issue isn't necessarily with him it's with the fact they didn't really sign a more solid #3. Remember they did try to sign Shields. If you consider him the #3 they tried to get with Hammel as a #4/5 starter he's fine. Most #4/5 starters are frankly pretty horrible.

 

[beckdawg]

Thats a bit over dramatic and he is now at over 50% k rate for the month of September. Yet again, if he continues to struggle his glove isn't substantially better than Baez or Castro if the bat is no where near. This isn't July. This is a playoff push. Maddon said moving Castro off short probably wouldn't have happened if he wasn't hitting so bad. I would sense they think the same about Russell. This isn't to hurt anyone feelings. This is putting your best lineup to win every night.

Another option would be to just play the match ups with all 3. Castro going off his career numbers is .296/.345/.416 vs lefties, .275/.312/.396 vs righties. Russell this season is .150/.213/.300 vs lefties and .269/.326/.428 vs righties. Baez's bad 2014 sorta fucks with his L/R splits so i'm not going to comment on him. But, I think you could make the argument for resting Russell vs lefties. IIRC, lefties only account for ~25% of MLB pitchers in a given season so Russell likely still plays a lot.

The other consideration is if you play Baez at 3B. vs Bryant there. That sort factors in the OF match ups as well. But if you're making the argument against Russell I think you just pull him vs Lefties.

 

[Bear Pride]

On Russel/Castro/Baez. They are going to have to either trade Soler or Castro. There is little else to debate on.

For me, it seems like the Cubs have a ton of infielders, and a few decent outfielders. Why anyone would think we'd trade a low priced OF instead of a high priced IF surprises me. I doubt Soler is going anywhere, even if he comes off the bench.

 

[SilenceS]

Another option would be to just play the match ups with all 3. Castro going off his career numbers is .296/.345/.416 vs lefties, .275/.312/.396 vs righties. Russell this season is .150/.213/.300 vs lefties and .269/.326/.428 vs righties. Baez's bad 2014 sorta fucks with his L/R splits so i'm not going to comment on him. But, I think you could make the argument for resting Russell vs lefties. IIRC, lefties only account for ~25% of MLB pitchers in a given season so Russell likely still plays a lot.

The other consideration is if you play Baez at 3B. vs Bryant there. That sort factors in the OF match ups as well. But if you're making the argument against Russell I think you just pull him vs Lefties.

That was my original comment. That he would go into a rotation in them instead of being everyday. A lot of versatility. Play the hot hands at the plate. A lot of great pitchers are going to be in the playoffs.

 

[beckdawg]

That was my original comment. That he would go into a rotation in them instead of being everyday. A lot of versatility. Play the hot hands at the plate. A lot of great pitchers are going to be in the playoffs.

Guess I read it wrong. I for whatever reason had it in my head as more of a benching than a match up/platoon thing. I will say though i'm sorta glad I read it that was because I didn't realize Russell's left hand split was so weird. It's sort of odd too with him being a righty as you'd expect that to be the other way around typically. Honestly, I sort of find that encouraging because his right hand split is actually really good when you consider his age though his bb/k rate aren't really noticeably different. The split is 108/351 so it could possibly be just a sample size issue too i suppose as 108 PAs isn't much and his BABIP is .194/.388 on the various splits.

 

[brett05]

You guys realize he's been worth 2.1 fWAR this year for $9 mil right? Going rate per win is typically $7 mil or so the past few years. He's frankly still a major bargain. Also, consider what the #4/5 would have looked like without him. The #5 starter had largely been a disaster so unless you were getting something else amazing I doubt you'd find a better way to spend the money.

Honest question. Where does the value per War come from? I mean Trout rakes in like 8-10 WAR each year but he's not worth up to $70 million per.

 

[chibears55]

The other side of the argument here is if Hammel doesn't have a sub 3 ERA in the first half the cubs probably aren't in the #2 WC spot. Either way, his first half justifies the money they spent on him. Your issue isn't necessarily with him it's with the fact they didn't really sign a more solid #3. Remember they did try to sign Shields. If you consider him the #3 they tried to get with Hammel as a #4/5 starter he's fine. Most #4/5 starters are frankly pretty horrible.

No, my issue is with him..

I dont look at major league pitchers as numbers, i look at them as starting pitchers in the major league that despite what their paid are being paid to get hitters out and keep their team in games for a chance to win..

I dont expect pitchers to be right all 30+ starts, csuse yes there going to be a couple bumps... i just expect consistency throughout the season, not a great first half and horrible second. .

if the cubs are to be yearly playoff contenders now, they need to find starters who wont kill the bullpen in 2nd half and not put all the pressure on other starters to win..

 

[TC in Mississippi]

No, my issue is with him..

I dont look at major league pitchers as numbers, i look at them as starting pitchers in the major league that despite what their paid are being paid to get hitters out and keep their team in games for a chance to win.

I'll have to disagree with you to a point here. I think you do look at numbers when you're building a team and not hope for a guy to be what he isn't. As an example Jon Lester is bad in April every damned year, this year there was dead arm which made it even worse but it wasn't the sole reason for him not being good that month. Cubs fans were shocked by his April performance but the evidence is in the numbers. Contrast with the fact that Lester also pitches his best ball in late August into September. That's your mitigating factor in why you'd want him on your team. Hammel is a bad second half pitcher. The numbers bear that out as well. People tried to justify last year for Hammel by saying he only had two bad starts for the A's which dragged his numbers down. Well that's not the whole truth he had two atrocious starts for Oakland and was average the rest of the time. That leads to a bad second half pitcher. The Cubs knew that too which is why they went out looking for a #3 starter at the deadline. They found the price to be too high and passed. I have no doubt that they know what Hammel is though and I also don't blame them for not mortgaging the future for a 2015 playoff run. Rock meets hard place. Hammel is what he is, the numbers in the second half tell that story. I don't blame fish for being fish or athletes being exactly who the numbers tell you they are.

 

[Chief Walking Stick]

Hopefully Arrieta can go 7-8+ tonight.

Would really help to save the bullpen down the stretch.