Schefter: Multiple teams contacted Bears about Jordan Howard

[BaBaBlacksheep]

Is the Rory Vortex now a thing?

 

[remydat]

Jordan howard played 60% of the snap count.

Its not a stupid stat to point out. He played 650 snaps at RB, 250 of which were runs. The rest were pass plays. Means 60% of the time he was in, we actually passed. I'm not good at math, but I'm pretty sure that means we passed more than we ran when he was in.

Obviously it isn't as high as cohen, but cohen played 46% of the snaps and the team improved all around with him in. Cohen obviously had more passes thrown to him, but I'm pretty sure averaging 4.5 YPC versus 3.7YPC also helped the team.

Actually, unless my math is wrong, Cohen and Howard basically played about the same # of pass plays once you remove their rushing statistics.

650 snaps for howard - 250 rushes = 400 pass plays.

495 snaps for cohen - 99 rushes = 396 pass plays.

yep cant argue with this. As much as I like JH he is really not helping this offence.

Any idea what compensatory pick we will get after next year when he walks? As long as we get at least that this year then i think he is gone.

Actually can argue with this as the numbers appear wrong. Howard had 646 snaps. 231 pass plays where he didn't block, 96 pass plays where he blocked, 269 running plays where he didn't bock and 50 run plays where he blocked. So you forgot to account for the fact that he may be in on a run play but not get the carry and or be responsible for blocking.

So all told that is 327 pass plays and 319 run plays or pretty much 50/50. That is fairly balanced and contradicts the idea the offense is predictable with him in. It was not. The offense was balanced with him in and since run plays yield less yards than pass plays, that balance meant the yards per play would be less.

By contrast, Cohen had 541 snaps. 364 of them were pass plays were he didn't block, 11 pass plays where he blocked and 103 run plays where he didn't block and 63 run plays where he blocked.

So all told that is 375 passing plays and 166 run plays or a 70/30 split. So the irony is it is Cohen that makes the offense predictable because they pass overwhelming when he is in the game. That also means though the yards per pass play when he is in is likely to be higher since passes yield more yards than runs.

FYI, the above numbers are from PFF.

 

[Rory Sparrow]

Is the Rory Vortex now a thing?

I don't know. Modo seemed to understand what I was saying...then again, he's probably been "on top" of the goings-on with the Bears, such as how Kareem Hunt is not on the current roster. Since iueyedoc is coming at it from an angle of pure ignorance, I can understand how it would appear 'incongruent' to him.

Thanks for adding your thoughts to this. Please keep me abreast on which players Pace will be releasing after this season.

 

[msadows]

Actually can argue with this as the numbers appear wrong. Howard had 646 snaps. 231 pass plays where he didn't block, 96 pass plays where he blocked, 269 running plays where he didn't bock and 50 run plays where he blocked. So you forgot to account for the fact that he may be in on a run play but not get the carry and or be responsible for blocking.

So all told that is 327 pass plays and 319 run plays or pretty much 50/50. That is fairly balanced and contradicts the idea the offense is predictable with him in. It was not. The offense was balanced with him in and since run plays yield less yards than pass plays, that balance meant the yards per play would be less.

By contrast, Cohen had 541 snaps. 364 of them were pass plays were he didn't block, 11 pass plays where he blocked and 103 run plays where he didn't block and 63 run plays where he blocked.

So all told that is 375 passing plays and 166 run plays or a 70/30 split. So the irony is it is Cohen that makes the offense predictable because they pass overwhelming when he is in the game. That also means though the yards per pass play when he is in is likely to be higher since passes yield more yards than runs.

FYI, the above numbers are from PFF.

Thanks, couldn't find a website that listed the actual numbers for how the play went down.

Still pretty close, 375 passing plays to 327 pass plays. Obviously the ratio is off, but howard was in on plenty pass snaps.

 

[Rory Sparrow]

Thanks, couldn't find a website that listed the actual numbers for how the play went down.

Still pretty close, 375 passing plays to 327 pass plays. Obviously the ratio is off, but howard was in on plenty pass snaps.

Great stuff. The whole idea that Howard was in on 319 run plays to Cohen's 166 is completely ignored.

 

[msadows]

I think you might be a little harsh when it comes to JH. He seemed to find his way late in the season, averaging over 4.5 YPA and 80 YPG over the last 3rd of the season(5games). That makes the trade vs keep him decision a bit more difficult but that is what Pace is paid to figure out. Is 2019 Howard the last 5 game 4.5YPA guy, or is he the guy that had 5 of 11 games at 2.5YPA or less to begin the season?

One is worth more than a 4th rd pick the other isn't.

As remy will tell you it's because we ran more zone at the end of the year.

Direct correlation between howard being a successful runner and us running more zone blocking.....Now the real question is whether or not Pace/Nagy wants to change the offense to be more similar to the last 5 weeks of the season, or keep the offense that we saw early in the season.

Howard in the right scheme can average 4.0-4.5 YPC still as shown last year.

 

[msadows]

Great stuff. The whole idea that Howard was in on 319 run plays to Cohen's 166 is completely ignored.

Or maybe thats where I said OBVIOUSLY THE RATIO IS OFF.

Rory Vortex.

Always gotta be right. Go home old man you drug.

 

[remydat]

But if you are saying that Pace/Nagy really wanted Hunt by your EOY presser reference but dragged their feet for over a month to sign him only to get "beat to the punch" then that makes zero sense. the two are incongruous.

I suspect they were interested in exploring Hunt and had plans to discuss with McCaskey and Sweaty Ted. I think they were surprised by the fact someone signed him so quickly as most thought teams would wait until the NFL clarified his situation further.

 

[DaaBears]

Reading through this thread, I see conclusions and theories being reached by some posters that may or may not be at all true. Starting from the top, the theory that Nagy wants to pass the ball much more. Reid we know is a pass first head coach. In Philly he became hated by fans for that. Nagy is not Reid, he just worked for him. He may be the same, he may not. From what I can see, my guess is he wants a balanced offense.

To those that are outright questioning the abilities of Jordan Howard, I just outright cannot agree. In the prior years, in an offense with no receivers, a horrible QB followed up by a rookie quarterback, the defense knew we were running and running. Yet, Jordan Howard was second in the league in rushing, beating some playoff times in doing so, a couple of times racking up over 200 yards, against defenses stacking the line against the run. Maybe our offensive line was not so good last year, maybe Trubisky made them look a lot better with his own running and scrambling. Maybe in particular the run blocking was shit, as how many times did Trubisky hand Howard the ball where he was immediately tackled in the backfield before he took 2 steps, totally decimating his YPC average.

Maybe when Nagy realized he had the best defense in the league, he said lets not blow this, and started giving the ball to Howard and playing to his strengths later in the season, thus you saw the pickup in YPC. I think sometimes people forget that there wasn't a game last year that the Bears either should have or could have won down the stretch. Giants, Miami, NE, Eagles Packers.

Maybe Nagy overcoached to a degree in his first season and maybe he realized it as we moved along. But by all measures the Bears outplayed nearly everyone's expectations. It's very simplistic to think that what you saw in Nagy's first year is what you get going forward, that he has in blueprint his scheme for success, which is Reid's scheme and that is what the Bears will do and maneuver around players to meet the blueprint. Personally I think that line of conclusions on this message board is total horseshit.

Forte was equally hated by some on this message board and honestly I think the Bears utilized him to the fullest and let him go after a long time with the Bears, when his time was just about over. Jordan Howard isn't nearly done yet. I know he doesn't fit what you guys think Nagy wants, but I am not sure that is the same thing that actually Nagy and Pace want.

 

[remydat]

Thanks, couldn't find a website that listed the actual numbers for how the play went down.

Still pretty close, 375 passing plays to 327 pass plays. Obviously the ratio is off, but howard was in on plenty pass snaps.

Yes but that obliterates the argument being made. First a near 50/50 run pass ratio is not predictable as many have claimed the offense is with Howard in. In fact, the guy that makes the offense predictable is Cohen.

Second, while Cohen and Howard have similar pass play stats, there run play stats are vastly different. It is basic math to understand that if run plays yield say 4 YPC and pass plays yield 8 YPR that a dude that plays 50% of the time on both will have a lower yards per play than a guy that plays 70% of the time on passing plays regardless of their individual contributions.

So the point is the offense performs better with Cohen in large part because Cohen plays the vast majority of time on passing plays. That is not to say Cohen isn't better for the offense but that particular stat does not prove it. You would be better off just noting that Cohen has a higher YPC and a higher YPR than Howard to make that case rather than trying to give him credit for the whole offense performing better.

 

[didshereallysaythat]

Actually can argue with this as the numbers appear wrong. Howard had 646 snaps. 231 pass plays where he didn't block, 96 pass plays where he blocked, 269 running plays where he didn't bock and 50 run plays where he blocked. So you forgot to account for the fact that he may be in on a run play but not get the carry and or be responsible for blocking.

So all told that is 327 pass plays and 319 run plays or pretty much 50/50. That is fairly balanced and contradicts the idea the offense is predictable with him in. It was not. The offense was balanced with him in and since run plays yield less yards than pass plays, that balance meant the yards per play would be less.

Weren't you one of the ones that hated the 3rd and 5 play call in the Miami game where we ran Howard out of shotgun just before the missed FG? You said something along the lines of knowing right away that with Howard in the game, it must be a run?

 

[Black Rainbow]

If this thread were a pool party:

 

[remydat]

Reading through this thread, I see conclusions and theories being reached by some posters that may or may not be at all true. Starting from the top, the theory that Nagy wants to pass the ball much more. Reid we know is a pass first head coach. In Philly he became hated by fans for that. Nagy is not Reid, he just worked for him. He may be the same, he may not. From what I can see, my guess is he wants a balanced offense.

To those that are outright questioning the abilities of Jordan Howard, I just outright cannot agree. In the prior years, in an offense with no receivers, a horrible QB followed up by a rookie quarterback, the defense knew we were running and running. Yet, Jordan Howard was second in the league in rushing, beating some playoff times in doing so, a couple of times racking up over 200 yards, against defenses stacking the line against the run. Maybe our offensive line was not so good last year, maybe Trubisky made them look a lot better with his own running and scrambling. Maybe in particular the run blocking was shit, as how many times did Trubisky hand Howard the ball where he was immediately tackled in the backfield before he took 2 steps, totally decimating his YPC average.

Maybe when Nagy realized he had the best defense in the league, he said lets not blow this, and started giving the ball to Howard and playing to his strengths later in the season, thus you saw the pickup in YPC. I think sometimes people forget that there wasn't a game last year that the Bears either should have or could have won down the stretch. Giants, Miami, NE, Eagles Packers.

Maybe Nagy overcoached to a degree in his first season and maybe he realized it as we moved along. But by all measures the Bears outplayed nearly everyone's expectations. It's very simplistic to think that what you saw in Nagy's first year is what you get going forward, that he has in blueprint his scheme for success, which is Reid's scheme and that is what the Bears will do and maneuver around players to meet the blueprint. Personally I think that line of conclusions on this message board is total horseshit.

Forte was equally hated by some on this message board and honestly I think the Bears utilized him to the fullest and let him go after a long time with the Bears, when his time was just about over. Jordan Howard isn't nearly done yet. I know he doesn't fit what you guys think Nagy wants, but I am not sure that is the same thing that actually Nagy and Pace want.

I think the simple answer is Nagy prefers to pass and come up with trick plays. That is a feature of his football personality so that is what he will default too. That means he would prefer someone other than Howard and when that stuff is working he will not go out of his way to design an offense for Howard. However, when that doesn't work such as later in the season when the weather is colder and with Trubs battling injury, Nagy then trying to highlight Howard more and thus went back to the zone blocking that Howard is good in.

What he needs to do going forward is find the right mix of the above and recognize sooner when he needs to pivot from one over the other. Hopefully that comes from watching the film of this season and more maturation as a head coach.

 

[BigJ52]

 

[Gustavus Adolphus]

I hope the Bears go bankrupt and they are contracted from the league.

 

[remydat]

Weren't you one of the ones that hated the 3rd and 5 play call in the Miami game where we ran Howard out of shotgun just before the missed FG? You said something along the lines of knowing right away that with Howard in the game, it must be a run?

Not sure what this has to do with anything. I was upset Nagy went conservative and settled for a FG by running 3 times. And yes it is obvious that when it is 3rd and 5 and you send in Howard that you are being conservative and likely running again because Cohen is obviously more dynamic in the passing game and 3rd and 5 is a passing down unless you trying to play it safe.

So think you confusing a anecdotal comment based on a specific down and distance with the statistical based question of whether the O is predictable in general with Howard in.

 

[BearDen]

Hard pass

 

[msadows]

I think the simple answer is Nagy prefers to pass and come up with trick plays. That is a feature of his football personality so that is what he will default too. That means he would prefer someone other than Howard and when that stuff is working he will not go out of his way to design an offense for Howard. However, when that doesn't work such as later in the season when the weather is colder and with Trubs battling injury, Nagy then trying to highlight Howard more and thus went back to the zone blocking that Howard is good in.

What he needs to do going forward is find the right mix of the above and recognize sooner when he needs to pivot from one over the other. Hopefully that comes from watching the film of this season and more maturation as a head coach.

Thats only if trubs doesn't improve next year. If we are firing on all cylinders in the pass game and mitch improves to a top 10QB in the nfl, I have very much doubt we will run a similar offense to what happened the last 4-5 games.

That in my opinion is what they expect, for mitch to take the next step to being a very good/legit probowl QB. If that is the case, a running back like Jordan Howard doesn't have a major fit in this offense.

He'd be ideal getting 125-150 carries and sharing the bulk of the load with someone like Ware/Coleman/Draftpick. I seriously hope that is what ends up happening because I think it will prove fruitful

Many on here think I want to trade him no matter what(Well, just HeHateMe). Thats False. I think Howard has his place, just like you do, but he needs to be used properly and efficiently. I don't want Howard getting 250 carries again and would rather trade him than see that happen, however, on a reduced workload he has a place on this team where he can be very effective.

 

[didshereallysaythat]

Not sure what this has to do with anything. I was upset Nagy went conservative and settled for a FG by running 3 times. And yes it is obvious that when it is 3rd and 5 and you send in Howard that you are being conservative and likely running again because Cohen is obviously more dynamic in the passing game and 3rd and 5 is a passing down unless you trying to play it safe.

So think you confusing a anecdotal comment based on a specific down and distance with the statistical based question of whether the O is predictable in general with Howard in.

The total raw numbers don't back dat up doh.

 

[msadows]

Hard pass

Yea gonna be a pass from me too. Why the fuck would we want to infuse our young team with a 34 year old runningback.