The Javier Baez Discussion Thread

[beckdawg]

In 53 PAs Baez has yet to walk once while striking out 20 times(37.7%). I may regret this later but I think I'm entirely off the hype train.

 

[Parade_Rain]

In 53 PAs Baez has yet to walk once while striking out 20 times(37.7%). I may regret this later but I think I'm entirely off the hype train.

He strikes himself out and swings at bad off speed pitches hitting weak popups often.

 

[TL1961]

I realize they don't want 20 different voices in his head right out of the gate, but it can't be a bad thing for the hitting coach to work with him.

They don't want to change his swing, which has been very productive, and that makes sense. Joe Maddon saw him and said the same - "Just keep doing what you've been doing."

But when a guy strikes out 37% of the time swinging from his heels in every situation, adjustments need to be made. Shorten up the stroke in certain situations. Teach him that he does not need to swing his hardest to hit the ball out, and he doesn't need to hit the ball out every time up.

 

[theberserkfury]

In 53 PAs Baez has yet to walk once while striking out 20 times(37.7%). I may regret this later but I think I'm entirely off the hype train.

I thought this was pretty much what we were expecting from him for this year...

If this is what he's playing like next June, I think I'll join you.

 

[SilenceS]

People def. have issues with sample sizes here. Let him calm down.

Its funny, people are nervous about Baez because of Strikeouts. Kris Bryant out at a higher rate in AAA then Baez did. Perception is everything.

 

[Captain Obvious]

I'm pretty confident that he will make adjustments in due time to become better.

 

[beckdawg]

I thought this was pretty much what we were expecting from him for this year...

If this is what he's playing like next June, I think I'll join you.

I expected the K's but I also expected at least some semblance of walks. I mean I get it, it's still early but it's very discouraging sign. It means he's either A) unable to stop himself from swinging at poor pitches out of the zone(most likely case at the moment) or B) unable to decided whether or not pitches will be strikes(less likely but possible). Option B is pretty scary. Honestly, I'm trying to be patient with him but I'm wondering if it wouldn't be a smarter move to deal him this offseason for pitching. I get the argument for plowing on with him. He has MVP caliber tools. However, seeing a path to him reaching his potential is much harder given the numbers he has currently. To put it simply, he has to fundamentally change as a player from what he's been.

For example, contrast him with someone I obviously like a lot in Alcantara. Alcantara in AAA this year was a 6.8%/22.7% walk/k guy with great doubles and SB and decent HR power. Thus far in the majors, Alcantara is 7.3%/25.8% with the SB and doubles being in line based on the plate appearances. Power is down a little but obviously he's still a bit over matched. Seeing a path for Alcantara to be what he was in the minors is easier. He can cut back his K's a bit and his average likely will rebound over time like Rizzo given that Alcantara's BABIP is down 60-100 points from the minors. He likely will eventually start making better contact.

On the other hand, I've illustrated the trouble with Baez as a 8%/23%+ bb/k rate player I believe earlier in this tread. And honestly, that may be generous estimates. I guess this is where scouting comes in because clearly they see loud tools enough to over look the rest but Baez seems the very definition of high risk/reward. If he figures his issues out he's likely one of the best players in the game. However, if he doesn't, I'm not even sure he's a major leaguer and I guess that's my concern. In this case, the unknown on him is still enough for him to hold value but if he bombs in this stint and then bombs again next year you're getting substantially less for him. And with someone like Russell, even if he's not reaching his top end you can make a solid case that he'll be at least a useful player. I'm just not sure the risk/reward is worth it especially if they can manage to package him for a MLB pitcher.

 

[beckdawg]

Its funny, people are nervous about Baez because of Strikeouts. Kris Bryant out at a higher rate in AAA then Baez did. Perception is everything.

Kind of comparing two different things. Bryant's ISO has been over .338 at every stop above rookie ball. Baez had the great second half in AA with .344 but other than that he's hovered in the .250-.260 ISO range. In other words, Bryant has destroyed pitches he makes contact with. Additionally, Bryant's walk rate is fairly stellar. That's not to say that K's shouldn't be a concern on Bryant. Combine the ISO and the walk rate and it's easy to see someone who has good control over the zone. I'm not going to pretend to have enough data to make a well researched argument here but it could be as simple as Bryant not swinging at pitches he can't drive or him not being able to do much with certain pitches. Also, for what it's worth, the lowest Bryant has hit average wise is .306 in AAA.

That's obviously not the same situation with Baez.

 

[chibears55]

He facing najor League Pitchers and Catchers and Pitching Coaches for that matter , that are pretty smart in knowing what pitches to throw to a young energetic big swinging rookie.

When his heart rate calms diwn when he steps to the plate and start approaching his AB like he did in the minors , he'll be fine

 

[SilenceS]

This thread makes my head hurt. Just watch the kid play ball and the rest will work itself out.

 

[beckdawg]

When his heart rate calms diwn when he steps to the plate and start approaching his AB like he did in the minors , he'll be fine

Maybe. I don't want to be one of "those guys" but it's worth mentioning not everyone figures it out. And if you were going to give a prototype of guys that went wrong, Baez has a lot of the qualities. Look no farther than someone like Brett Jackson. Like I said, I'm trying to be patient with Baez but to be oblivious to the issues seems rather naive.

 

[SilenceS]

Maybe. I don't want to be one of "those guys" but it's worth mentioning not everyone figures it out. And if you were going to give a prototype of guys that went wrong, Baez has a lot of the qualities. Look no farther than someone like Brett Jackson. Like I said, I'm trying to be patient with Baez but to be oblivious to the issues seems rather naive.

.141 BA, .281 OBP, 1 home run, .242 SLG, .523 OPS. 49 Games played, 153 PA, 128AB's. 35.9% K rate. That is Anthony Rizzo stat line in his first big league experience.

Could Baez bust? Absolutely. To make any kind of judgement right now is absolutely ridiculous. He is jacked up. He will take walks. Its why the Cubs called him up now. 21 years old. Yet again, 21 years old. Not everyone is Mike Trout out the gate. I swear that guy made people have unrealistic expectations on young players.

 

[brett05]

So its unreal to think he'd have a few walks????

 

[SilenceS]

So its unreal to think he'd have a few walks????

No, its unreal to talk about trading him because he hasnt walked in 54 bats.

 

[SilenceS]

He walked! Praise Jesus!

 

[theberserkfury]

Well, he just took his first walk.

He's gonna be a superstar...

 

[theberserkfury]

He walked! Praise Jesus!

Dammit, Silence.

 

[brett05]

No, its unreal to talk about trading him because he hasnt walked in 54 bats.

Maybe

 

[beckdawg]

No one is saying he had to be Mike Trout out of the gate. Mike Trout wasn't Mike Trout out of the gate as he was sent back to the minors a point people seem to forget. What's ironic is you seem to miss my point. My entire point was people shouldn't expect much out of Baez until these issues change. To quote myself, "I'm entirely off the hype train." The difference here is clearly you seem to have no worries about them changing while I'm rather concerned. However, to sit here and act as though I'm overreacting to the situation is a bit silly. Most prospects don't reach their potential which includes the really good ones.

If you want to disagree on whether or not the issues are worth being concerned over then fine. That's your opinion and you're welcome to it. However, they are valid concerns. It's not like I'm reaching for a reason to dislike Baez. If you look at past failed prospects one of the highest correlations tends to be high K rates.

 

[theberserkfury]

And there's another Baez walk...