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[Boobaby1]

Both took similar paths if not the same exact strategy. Houston likely more so than Minnesota. The Astros, for instance, immediately instituted an "Astros Way" in the organization and changed the structure of minor league coaching much like the Cubs did. They also identified an archetype of a player they wanted much like the Cubs even if Chicago seems to value the character aspect more than most. As far as differences, yes these three teams took different draft paths. Minnesota drafted high school position players heavily and high school arms to a lesser degree. Houston has taken a lot of pitching in the first round under Luhnow. The Cubs as we know have emphasized high ceiling, high floor position players taking the best available hitter as their 1st round pick the last three years. They also have emphasized power hitters, particularly right handed power, which they view as a market inequity. The Cubs have also invested heavily in International signings. Again while the draft strategy may differ all three of these clubs have pumped money into development, have emphasized foundation before tackling the MLB club and all are now reaping benefits. I do expect Milwaukee to take a similar path bug they actually have an advantage in that their farm system is not in the bottom 1/3 as Chicago's and Hoyston's were.

Judging by who runs the Astro's, Jeff Lunhow came over from the Cardinals and I guarantee you he is running like the "Cardinals Way".

 

[Boobaby1]

It's not the same. The Cubs abandoned seasons and yes it looks like they hit it BIG. The Astros and Twins did nothing of the sort. They just don't have the same finances as the Cubs to have done both.

Somewhat true. They did in fact abandon the seasons, but in all honesty, they needed to.

I am sure Theo (and especially the fans) did not want to do that, but if you look at the farm which had Cashner, leMahieu, and Baez (19 years old) in it, he took over a team with an empty cupboard, and aging veterans on the parent club.

He sold off any assets to stockpile the farm in Garza, Marshall, Dempster, Maholm, Soriano, Byrd, and Samardzija, and parlayed a half year of Feldman into a Cy Young candidate.

With the aforementioned players, they have received Arrieta, Strop, Ramirez, Grimm, Hendricks, LaStella, Russell, McKinney, Black, Edwards, Olt (White Sox), coupled with notable draft choices and IFA's of Soler, Torrez, Jimenez, Bryant, Almora, and Schwarber to throw into the system.

There is a reason why they went from one of the worst farms, to one of the best that quickly. You generally don't do that with just a few top draft years.

That is how inept the farm system was.

Not all are destined to become quality major leaguers, but the point being is what they set out to do, and what they were able to accomplish in itself is quite amazing, especially that fast.

The payroll is still modest for a large market team, and Lester, E-Jax, Montero, and Fowler make up almost half of that.

They could add 50 million worth of new contracts if they desire, and with losing who they will be losing, still be in the 145-150 million dollar a year area which is not a lot compared to other teams like even the Phillies, Detroit, and Nationals for instance.

I can't even imagine what the winter meetings are going to be like around here. I may have to take a sedative to get through it as the rumors and expectations will be through the roof.

 

[brett05]

How do you say the Astros didn't abandon seasons? Every year the Cubs drafted high, the Astros drafted before them.

Your quote of mine answers your question

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Your quote of mine answers your question

So what you're saying is the Cubs made a choice to tank seasons while the other two teams had no choice? I don't buy that. The Cubs really didn't have a choice either. Hedging your bets and putting a mediocre team on the field only weakens your effort to rebuild the system. Plus the new ownership had a lot less money to spend that the old ownership. The way the TV and radio deals made intercompany bears this out as well. The Tribune company designed it for the Cubs to make less money because they could and it didn't affect overall baseball spending when they were all big happy family. When the Ricketts bought the club, were locked into those bad deals and were also saddled by the debt service limits imposed by the bankruptcy court the team stopped being a big money team, at least for a while. Contracts had to be shed and the system was a mess. If they had chosen to try to compete while rebuilding they would be nowhere near where they are now. The hybrid approach that you seem to be implying doesn't work. Trying to win without good foundations, both financial and organizational, doesn't work. The Cubs and Astros both broke it down to the rafters and rebuilt. You can spin it anyway you want but the processes were very similar. If I'm misinterpreting you here please enlighten me (I would not want to base anything on false assumptions) because from where I sit the two rebuilds have more similarities than differences.

 

[CSF77]

I take it as Theo walked in and saw the mess. He decided to push the reset button.

Up to that point the Rickett's were trying to shed contract anyways. So what Theo did was in line with what ownership wanted.

Teams get old and over priced. They get it and keeping the orgization in a fluid state vs stagnate is the goal. When The Rickett's came in the team was a wreck. Over priced and in decline with no talent in the pipe.

 

[CSF77]

What I really want to see is the Cubs to take it all this year to put the nay Sayers in their place.

So sick and tired of the other point of view when it has been proven to be short term.

Buying a team of F/A means higher payrolls and declining production.

The best method has been build a strong farm as a base then add Targeted F/A's.

This year they signed Lester and Hammel. Traded for Montero and Fowler. All have added in.

Before Arrieta and Strop traded for.

Reality is Theo has played this whole evelution as a maestro

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I completely agree with you. This has been fun to watch and, to a lesser degree, the building of the Astros has been fun to watch to. Can you imagine if they hadn't switched leagues? The Central would have been the AL East of the aughts. It still kind of is. The larger point here is that while there are other paths to being a contender the teams with solid foundations are the ones that succeed more often than not. Not everyone has to tank a few years, that's reserved for the teams that are truly broken organizationally, but losing does come with it regardless. Building a foundation takes time. If you look at the contenders over the last several years, teams like SF, KC, STL, Boston, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, even Texas and now Chicago and Houston, those teams all have foundations to build a winner on. They may not win every year but they're not reinventing the wheel every year either. As I said there are other ways Toronto is a fantastic team right now by mortgaging their future and could very well win a world series, but with new PBO Mark Shapiro look for them to rebuild the foundation as well. Stearns is going to do that in Milwaukee and even semi-old school Walt Jockety is rebuilding his farm in Cincy rather than try to rebuild on the fly (granted they don't really have the money for that anyway). The Dodgers have the biggest payroll anyone has ever seen at $320 million but they didn't hire Andrew Friedman to continue that, they hired him to win now and then build an organizational structure where there was none. Foundations are the key and most of baseball, with a few notable exceptions, have figured that out.

 

[SilenceS]

The new CBA changed everything. Theo and them had a different plan until the new CBA came out and capped the draft. Thats when they decided to gut it completely.

 

[brett05]

Not sure where you get top 50. I just looked at ESPN top 100 and he was not on it. Arrieta was 3 and Grenke 1. Harper tween them. Rizzo 4 then 6 on Ellis. Bryant on top 50.

So not so sure. Maybe on potential. I really do not believe he has had a true break out yet. That is all I meant.

That's just what they are doing this year. See a value poll that comes out on fangraphs and grantland each year.

 

[brett05]

Nvm: tied for 93. By no means does that justify Soler, Baez and a equal to Baez.

You are under selling the value of players with star potential.

If we were talking about Sale then I would agree. Even though I believe it would be too much to pay. But we are talking Price level talent and that type changes the dynamic of a team.

At least on his day.

For Sale it would be more. Something the Cubs can't offer.

 

[brett05]

Soler, Almora, Villanueva and Vogelbach. Then with the cost savings resign Folwler to a 3 year deal. This gives time for Happ to mature to be his replacement in CF.

Soler: Replaced by Bryant.
Almora's need ended with Fowler and Happ.
Villanueva blocked by Baez now at 3B
Vogelbach blocked by Rizzo but now can focus on pure hitting in the AL.

To me that is a solid offer. Yes the Sox fans will scream too low but in reality it is not. They are getting a gold glove type 3B with 20 HR power. A RF with solid major league value that plays today. A GG CF type ready in a year. And a high OBA LH power hitter.

To be honest all of them have good bottom ends. I do not see a superstar out of the bunch. Soler could. Vogelbach would have to pull Dunn type production and that doesn't mean he will.

That is a offer of numbers. For higher quality it would have to be centered around Torres. I really do not think the Cubs will give him up. I see them using Castro at 2B until Torres promotes then they trade Castro's remainder.
Happ would fit at CF better.

Another they might consider is McKinney. I'm not a huge fan of his. Yes he is a pure hitter but unless he starts to show 30 HR power I'm not impressed with his package. I see him as a young Coghlan. That is a good ball player but not a guy you build a team around.

It's not enough nor does it address needs of the team if they part with Q. And that's the reality of it.

 

[dabears253313]

Soler, Almora, Villanueva and Vogelbach. Then with the cost savings resign Folwler to a 3 year deal. This gives time for Happ to mature to be his replacement in CF.

Soler: Replaced by Bryant.
Almora's need ended with Fowler and Happ.
Villanueva blocked by Baez now at 3B
Vogelbach blocked by Rizzo but now can focus on pure hitting in the AL.

To me that is a solid offer. Yes the Sox fans will scream too low but in reality it is not. They are getting a gold glove type 3B with 20 HR power. A RF with solid major league value that plays today. A GG CF type ready in a year. And a high OBA LH power hitter.

To be honest all of them have good bottom ends. I do not see a superstar out of the bunch. Soler could. Vogelbach would have to pull Dunn type production and that doesn't mean he will.

That is a offer of numbers. For higher quality it would have to be centered around Torres. I really do not think the Cubs will give him up. I see them using Castro at 2B until Torres promotes then they trade Castro's remainder.
Happ would fit at CF better.

Another they might consider is McKinney. I'm not a huge fan of his. Yes he is a pure hitter but unless he starts to show 30 HR power I'm not impressed with his package. I see him as a young Coghlan. That is a good ball player but not a guy you build a team around.

I thought you didn't think Fowler was worth bring back after this season? I'd like to see him back depending on the money. I agree with Baez at 3B and Bryant in the OF. Best lineup in my opinion has Castro, Baez and Russell starting in the infield.

 

[CSF77]

I thought you didn't think Fowler was worth bring back after this season? I'd like to see him back depending on the money. I agree with Baez at 3B and Bryant in the OF. Best lineup in my opinion has Castro, Baez and Russell starting in the infield.

That opinion was based off of payroll and bringing in Price. I no longer believe that is even necessary. I feel if they resign Fowler and get a pitcher on a trade they would be set up for next year.

Basically I did not have faith that this team could stand at the same level of the rest. They have pretty much killed that doubt.

 

[TL1961]

Trade for a pitcher?

They are full of money. Why trade players for a starter?

They didn't come this far and wait this long to save a couple bucks in a FA market full of top pitching talent.

 

[Boobaby1]

Trade for a pitcher?

They are full of money. Why trade players for a starter?

They didn't come this far and wait this long to save a couple bucks in a FA market full of top pitching talent.

I believe you do trade for a pitcher this year. There are a lot of players that need at bats, and they are starting to get crowded in that area.

That said. I can see a couple of scenarios here.

I think they might go in the lesser than area of Price, Grienke, and/or Cueto and go hard after Zimmerman. Second, I believe that they will take a player(s), and trade for either a young potential TOR, and/or a closer.

Not saying I wouldn't like to have Price, but the thought of signing someone like Zimmermann, and putting a package of players for a Tyson Ross and Craig Kimbrel, I think would do wonders for the starting staff and bullpen.

Arrieta, Lester, Ross and Zimmermann at the top with Strop, Grimm, Ramirez, Rondon, and Kimbrel in the end?

Don't know if it could be done but count me in.

Hell, just give me Ross and Zimmermann.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Trade for a pitcher?

They are full of money. Why trade players for a starter?

They didn't come this far and wait this long to save a couple bucks in a FA market full of top pitching talent.

Because you need one cost controlled starter as part of that staff going forward. One that's going to improve. My personal opinion is that they should out and get two starters, one in FA and the cost controlled one through trade in the offseason but my suspicion is that they'll sign a FA not Price or one of the top guys, more like Kazmir or Leake, and then make the trade for the younger guy at the deadline if the division is plainly winnable and the WS is more of a realistic goal than it is this year. That way they can juggle the younger players in the first half and have an even better understanding of who to trade going forward. Then again, if Castro's value has improved enough where they aren't being asked to send money back with him and are able to get value, then they might make the trade over the winter. Lots of possibities but I'll eat my hat if there isn't a trade for pitching in the next 10 months.

 

[TL1961]

I believe you do trade for a pitcher this year. There are a lot of players that need at bats, and they are starting to get crowded in that area.

That said. I can see a couple of scenarios here.

I think they might go in the lesser than area of Price, Grienke, and/or Cueto and go hard after Zimmerman. Second, I believe that they will take a player(s), and trade for either a young potential TOR, and/or a closer.

Not saying I wouldn't like to have Price, but the thought of signing someone like Zimmermann, and putting a package of players for a Tyson Ross and Craig Kimbrel, I think would do wonders for the starting staff and bullpen.

Arrieta, Lester, Ross and Zimmermann at the top with Strop, Grimm, Ramirez, Rondon, and Kimbrel in the end?

Don't know if it could be done but count me in.

Hell, just give me Ross and Zimmermann.

We are saying the same thing, then. Trade for closer from surplus talent. (No core players). And yes, a guy w potential. But you absolutely do not sit out this year's FA market and go for a guy who cant be a reliable playoff starter.

You are not entering 2016 trying to get TO the playoffs. You approach FA looking for a guy to winyou playoff starts. And, yes, I would put Zimmerman in that category.

 

[TL1961]

Because you need one cost controlled starter as part of that staff going forward. One that's going to improve. My personal opinion is that they should out and get two starters, one in FA and the cost controlled one through trade in the offseason but my suspicion is that they'll sign a FA not Price or one of the top guys, more like Kazmir or Leake, and then make the trade for the younger guy at the deadline if the division is plainly winnable and the WS is more of a realistic goal than it is this year. That way they can juggle the younger players in the first half and have an even better understanding of who to trade going forward. Then again, if Castro's value has improved enough where they aren't being asked to send money back with him and are able to get value, then they might make the trade over the winter. Lots of possibities but I'll eat my hat if there isn't a trade for pitching in the next 10 months.

Ok. Again, agreed. My response was to a post suggesting our only P target was "middle of rotation" trade pickup. FA TOR (or close to it) should be acquired. Wont mean we get top target, but many options.

A closer in trade would be priority #2.

If you can trade guys who won't start for a middlebof rotation guy, go for that too

 

[Diehardfan]

The problem I have with trading is that you tend to improve a competitor by helping yourself. You can't assume an Arietta/Strop for Feldman deal will happen again. So why improve another team when you don't have to? With all the money this franchise will have the next couple of years, there's no need to cost control anything. If you're looking for a cheap option that more than likely will improve his game...look no further than Hendricks. The FA pitching options will be ripe this off season and the timing is excellent for the Cubs both in available talent and money to spend on that talent.

You sign a top level starter and a competent lefty reliever....with Rameriz coming back that's like a 25% turnover on your staff, I'd roll with that. Plus there maybe a kid or two that surprises in the spring as well. I can see no need to trade at all.

 

[CSF77]

Ok. Again, agreed. My response was to a post suggesting our only P target was "middle of rotation" trade pickup. FA TOR (or close to it) should be acquired. Wont mean we get top target, but many options.

A closer in trade would be priority #2.

If you can trade guys who won't start for a middlebof rotation guy, go for that too

It depends on how much in house answers they are looking at.

Closer I believe is not needed. Rondon has been pretty solid. Ramirez should be back. They have a arb option on Strop. Grimm. It is not even a priority.

I would rank it as: CF needs to be addressed first. That impacts the team every day. With out Fowler the team has no lead off. I know they need a SP but that affects the team 1 out of 5. And we have seen Maddon pull off bull pen days that turn out better than Hammel starts. Go figure.

So my opinion is they need to settle CF before they make a decision on a SP. There is depth in options for a starter. CF the pickings are slim.

I don't know what Theo will end up doing. If I had to guess it would be rush job Almora in AAA and start him up by May. I would extend Fowler for a few years and trade Almora myself. Almora is not a lead off.

Worst thing he could do is offer a 1 year to Jackson. He has too much swing and miss to his game to product a stable OBA.

I just have the feeling that Theo will go hard after Price. Cut some unneeded contract and put a temp CF solution until Almora is ready. Coghlan and Denorfia.

Outside chance that they move either Baez or Castro to CF. Very outside chance.