beckdawg
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I generalize because that's generally how things work. Undoubtedly there are exceptions but you never know who those will be. Regardless, we're comparing a 22 and 23 year old player to a 25 and 26 year old player. It's a slanted comparison. There's a reason 25-30 is are usually considered as your peak years. As for the K's coming, have the cubs managers not said the same things about Rizzo and his average? Can it happen? Absolutely. I just don't think he's that player just like I don't think Wood is an ace type pitcher. If I'm wrong in the future then I'm wrong. And that's not to say Cashner doesn't have value as a Wood type pitcher because he does. I just think he's a 3-4 on a good team. And we can debate the merits of fWAR here but in 2 seasons he's put up 2.5 vs 3.3 Rizzo has put up in 2 seasons you would expect Cashner to win given age.
My point is simply that if it is a 50/50 choice now, what will it be 3 years from now when Rizzo hits his "prime" years? And sure Cashner could get better. But he could also show the same flashes of brilliance that Shark does, never quite pulling it all together. I guess what I'm trying to say here is I am not surprised to see a 23 year old in his first full season in the majors struggle. On the other hand, as a 26 year old I expect more out of Cashner. And don't get me wrong he had a good season last year but it was also a season in which the splits suggest wildly different players. In petco he was arguably the best pitcher in the league. On the road he was a 3-4 starter. Given his history in chicago I'm more inclined to believe his road split. But ether way, it's clearly a question and for a 27 year old pitcher he's running out of time for questions just like Shark as a 29 year old is.
I feel I should also point out SD had a 3.24 ERA at home and a 4.78 ERA on the road last season as a team. So, it wasn't just him having greatly impact stats by Petco. Until Cashner puts up a more respectable road split I'm going to be inclined to view him as more a product of the stadium. If he goes out and puts up a 3.50 ERA road split next year then clearly I'm wrong and he'll probably end up with a 2.5-2.75 ERA overall. But, to view him as a similar pitcher to King Felix, Strasburg, and Sale because they have a similar ERA I feel is naive because I would take any of them over Cashner if I had to win a game.
