Trade deadline banter

[beckdawg]

So Peter Gammons said on the Score today that Cubs interest in Verlander was mild to non existent and who Theo was really asking about was Michael Fulmer. Obviously he's a better pitcher than any we've discussed, even if Archer has more of a track record, but if you're Al Avila to you entertain offers? If I were him I would. They're the near copy of the 2013 Phillies, a bad team saddled with bad contracts for guys who are unlikely to be moved for much. A 5 year rebuild would require being crazy aggressive and Avila himself might not survive it. That said if I'm him I absolutely listen, but I get the realities. I seriously doubt the Cubs could offer enough to offset the negativity that the Tigers would have to endure, particularly since young pitchers have injury risks which certainly would affect any offer, so I don't think this is going to happen but it's a very interesting scenario in the modern baseball landscape. You could say that if Ruben Amaro Jr. had been ruthlessly aggressive in 2013 he might still be the GM in Philly instead of the 1B coach for the Red Sox.

I'm glad to see this seems to be where theo's head is. I'm not sure there are a ton of guys out there like Fulmer but I'd almost be inclined to pay more than you think they should go for rather than fighting this uphill battle when they are actually on the market. That's one of the reasons I threw out Daniel Norris as a guy. He seems more gettable than Fulmer.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I'm glad to see this seems to be where theo's head is. I'm not sure there are a ton of guys out there like Fulmer but I'd almost be inclined to pay more than you think they should go for rather than fighting this uphill battle when they are actually on the market. That's one of the reasons I threw out Daniel Norris as a guy. He seems more gettable than Fulmer.

Absolutely. Fulmer may be a pipedream, I certainly get how hard it would be for Avila to make that move, but you have to be encouraged at what Theo is thinking about. Reporters like to bounce around names like Verlander, teams with a long term vision take closer looks.

 

[brett05]

I would tend to agree with you, but they probably should. Cabrera is owed $204 mil (including buyout of 2 option years) and is signed through 2023. Their best prospect is Matt Manning a 55 grade pitcher who is years away in short season A- ball, albeit a top 100 prospect, and their aging talent is probably just good enough to keep them out of the top 2 or 3 draft picks for a few years. Fulmer is unlikely to pitch a meaningful game for them until he's close to FA after 2022, and that's if they make very, very good decisions. By no means do I think it will happen, it's pretty hard to ask a GM to make a move like that, but I love that Theo is asking and in reality Detroit shouldn't dismiss offers for Fulmer out of hand.

I'd consider it, but I don't think the Cubs are in any position to go after Fulmer. It would have to be a team in the top 5 for minor league strength.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I'd consider it, but I don't think the Cubs are in any position to go after Fulmer. It would have to be a team in the top 5 for minor league strength.

Yep, you're almost certainly right. The Cubs could offer a package that would get it done but the cost would likely be devastating to the system. The Yankees could do it but won't, frankly the Brewers could do it but won't. I don't see a Fulmer trade happening for anyone but I like that Theo asked and I like the discussion in terms of modern team building.

 

[brett05]

Yep, you're almost certainly right. The Cubs could offer a package that would get it done but the cost would likely be devastating to the system. The Yankees could do it but won't, frankly the Brewers could do it but won't. I don't see a Fulmer trade happening for anyone but I like that Theo asked and I like the discussion in terms of modern team building.

For the Cubs it would have to be a guy on the 25, Eloy, and probaly Detroit's choice of any two SP specs. That would ruin the Cubs but would also be the type of return Fulmer would need to command.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

For the Cubs it would have to be a guy on the 25, Eloy, and probaly Detroit's choice of any two SP specs. That would ruin the Cubs but would also be the type of return Fulmer would need to command.

If I'm Detroit I don't want a single MLB player in the deal. From the Cubs I'd want Eloy, Cease, Ademan, Alzolay or Albertos and maybe one more. An MLB guy would be well into his arb years before they were ready to compete which I'd guess 5-6 years. Now, an MLB guy as part of a threeway deal? That I could see.

 

[chibears55]

So Peter Gammons said on the Score today that Cubs interest in Verlander was mild to non existent and who Theo was really asking about was Michael Fulmer.

Ok......
So am I the only one wondering how the hell would Gammons know who Theo was asking about...

I mean I doubt Theo or the Tigers GM hung up phone from each other and then called Gammons to share their conversation..

I really would like to know how these writers know what GMs are discussing when everything supposedly hush hush amongst them..


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[TC in Mississippi]

Ok......
So am I the only one wondering how the hell would Gammons know who Theo was asking about...

I mean I doubt Theo or the Tigers GM hung up phone from each other and then called Gammons to share their conversation..

I really would like to know how these writers know what GMs are discussing when everything supposedly hush hush amongst them..


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Of all the guys when it comes to Theo I believe Gammons. He would certainly know who the ask was for.

 

[Raskolnikov]

This isn't realistic but hypothetical.

Would you guys trade Ian Happ for Cody Bellinger? I think its an interesting question, given you are talking about 2 of the higher HR/AB rookies in recent history.

 

[Raskolnikov]

For me the things that made Happ a higher draft pick than Bellinger based on visible "talent" would give me enough pause that I wouldn't do it. With Bellinger, we are seeing something new. Quite possibly looking at the swing of a hall of famer. His ability to time up pitches despite outrageous hiccups and launch angle, he has something special. His ability to time up will probably never go away, pitch recognition is top order.

But...a power hitter without physical strength. Call me crazy but I would hold onto Happ. Bryant/Rizzo/Happ are going to make this squad formidable for a decade. The owners are going to have to pony up for pitchers throughout, and Eptstein needs to just not overthink things. Stop overvaluing players. No more Heyward level mistakes. Just build the best role fillers around those three, if you find a SS for that core great.

Trade Schwarber. And Candelario. Do something dramatic to get through this year like getting McCutchen and then pick up the pieces of this pitching staff and young head cases for another run.

 

[chibears55]

Of all the guys when it comes to Theo I believe Gammons. He would certainly know who the ask was for.

I'd get that for something that would be a done deal to give Gammons a first to report bit...

But

Why would Theo tell him about someone their interested in and have Gammons report that so that maybe another team might try and counter with more and or better offer and maybe risk upsetting team their in talks with for leaking out a conversation..



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[CSF77]

IDK if I want to go there. Happ was picked due to his versatility. He was a Maddon type. Cody is a LF. Apples to oranges. Cody has to hammer to have value. Happ it is bonus value.

 

[CSF77]

I'd get that for something that would be a done deal to give Gammons a first to report bit...

But

Why would Theo tell him about someone their interested in and have Gammons report that so that maybe another team might try and counter with more and or better offer and maybe risk upsetting team their in talks with for leaking out a conversation..



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"Sources say"

But realistically these reporters live and die on the accuracy of their reports. If they keep putting up bunk info then they lose reputation.

If you are making stuff up eventually you get called out on it

 

[CSF77]

Was seeing that some teams are kicking the tires on Teheran in a down year. New park is factoring but his velocity is down. Right now he is MOR and nothing more.

That said the Braves would be hard pressed to get a top 100 prospect out of him right now.

 

[CSF77]

MBTR did mention about Profar might be traded. I believe in 223 AB's in AAA he is slashing .303/.376/.444. Now he would fill a need as a long term lead off.

My thinking is they see what Tex would want for him. He is a former #1. That is his value point right now. So in view of this I'm guessing he would cost a decent player in return. Cubs really don't have a guy who needs a change of address yet.

But my thought is deal for him. Start him at 2B every day. Move Zo to UI. This frees up Baezfor a potential deal for a starting pitcher.

Now this affects Happ somewhat. But it seems that they are trying to push him into CF.

 

[Parade_Rain]

MBTR did mention about Profar might be traded. I believe in 223 AB's in AAA he is slashing .303/.376/.444. Now he would fill a need as a long term lead off.

My thinking is they see what Tex would want for him. He is a former #1. That is his value point right now. So in view of this I'm guessing he would cost a decent player in return. Cubs really don't have a guy who needs a change of address yet.

But my thought is deal for him. Start him at 2B every day. Move Zo to UI. This frees up Baezfor a potential deal for a starting pitcher.

Now this affects Happ somewhat. But it seems that they are trying to push him into CF.

If they push Happ to CF, where does that leave Almora? What's his future?

 

[chibears55]

If they push Happ to CF, where does that leave Almora? What's his future?

Seeing that Almora been pushed so far at end of bench with the lack of PT he gotten lately..
Have to believe he being dangled as a trade chip right now

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[CSF77]

If they push Happ to CF, where does that leave Almora? What's his future?

I believe Almora is a .260/.320/.450 hitter. He is a plus defender.

Happ on the other hand would be a .260/.350/.550 hitter with avg D at CF.

UZR has Almora: -2.3 Happ: 2.2. From fangraphs.

So honestly right now The Whole D thing is honestly off right now. The numbers are showing diffrent.

Almora is a 4th OF. He is getting love due to his hard effort but he doesnt have high impact talent.

Of all of Theo's first round picks he was the Square block in a bunch of cylinders. You can see why he has not flat out taken CF.

 

[chibears55]

Marlins are looking to trade everyone..

Wonder what it would take to get Stanton..


SP Kyle Barraclough would be a nice addition from them..


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[beckdawg]

Marlins are looking to trade everyone..

Wonder what it would take to get Stanton..


SP Kyle Barraclough would be a nice addition from them..


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I wouldn't want Stanton's contract. It's severely back loaded.

Also the idea of dealing Almora is a dumb in my opinion. If Happ has to play daily play him at 2B. There's a reason the front office moved him out of the OF to begin with. Don't let Baez who's a career .247/.291/.407 over 1020 PAs stop that. Baez really hasn't earned more playing time than Almora in my eyes. Almora's a better career hitter over 303 PAs(.271/.325/.411) and arguably as good defensively based on scouting albeit in CF. And frankly I don't even think we're at Almora's peak yet. Last year he couldn't hit LHP and was solidly good vs RHP. This year he's destroying LHP and struggling against RHP. Also like many young hitters his k rate is elevated over his minor league numbers. That could easily come down 3-5%. If he evens his splits out some and the k rate comes down while his walk rate holds stead you could easily be talking about a .280-.290 hitter with a .340-.350 OBP and say .425-.450 slugging. That's basically Dexter Fowler with better defense.