Trade deadline banter

[brett05]

If it has any truth to it....

I would look at it this way: I want both Norris and Fullmer. My package is lead by Schwarber. I'll toss in Butler.

After that I'm unloading my system. Alozay gone. Clifton. Gone. Candy and Zag. Gone. It would be 2 for 6 with maybe a PTBNL.

Now would they do it....man idk honestly. Happ slides into LF every day. Almora starts every day. 2B/SS goes back to Baez backing up both.

Rotation would be Fullmer, Lester, Arrieta, Lackey, Hendricks. Norris I would put in AAA to fix his mechanics.

Then on the play off run promote Norris and use him as a 3rd lefty.

Honestly that deal I could stomach. It sets up the rotation long term. They could promote Tseng as the 5 and have the rotation set next year. Worst case they buy another 1 year rent.

Now I doubt it is true but I see value in the idea

Of course the Cubs would do it. But that trade wouldn't be accepted by the Tigers of MLB or PS4.

 

[brett05]

Southsidewentblind,

Welcome.

Appreciate you jumping in.
the only trade that might have a semblance of working is with Cain. The Cubs do not have what is needed to do the others.

 

[anotheridiot]

Of course the Cubs would do it. But that trade wouldn't be accepted by the Tigers of MLB or PS4.

I wouldnt put it past them, Martinez is 38, not the powerhouse he was before. Allow Schwarber to do the same basic thing of C, 1B, DH.

We all knew Theo drafted a DH. Its time to just let him be that guy. We know what Schwarber can do offensively when his head is right. AL teams know that too. For all we know Detroit would give us enough to get him just to flip him to new york for everybody they have.

 

[brett05]

I wouldnt put it past them, Martinez is 38, not the powerhouse he was before. Allow Schwarber to do the same basic thing of C, 1B, DH.

We all knew Theo drafted a DH. Its time to just let him be that guy. We know what Schwarber can do offensively when his head is right. AL teams know that too. For all we know Detroit would give us enough to get him just to flip him to new york for everybody they have.

No one values him like Theo does. Kyle has a lot more to prove with the bat to command a TOR let alone two possible starting pitchers. I think Kyle for Norris could be a fair trade for both teams.

 

[CSF77]

No one values him like Theo does. Kyle has a lot more to prove with the bat to command a TOR let alone two possible starting pitchers. I think Kyle for Norris could be a fair trade for both teams.

It is probably a fair trade for those 2. 1:1. Both have the potential to become impact players on their teams.

 

[beckdawg]

A's are making Yonder Alonso available. I have to imagine the yankees make the most sense there. But that does make me wonder if Candelario to Oakland now makes more sense. Healy and Olson presumably would be your go to DH/1B. Matt Chapman would presumably be your go to 3B. But none of them are really hitting all that well. Healy was pretty good in 2016. Candelario could arguably play all 3 positions for them. Olson could probably play LF though think they'd rather Khris Davis there atm. Something to keep an eye on anyways with not much Gray news.

 

[beckdawg]

fangraphs had Russell as #40 on their top 50 in trade value. Had this to say...

If this was just Dave’s Top 50 Franchise Players or something, Russell might not be on this list. I’ve maintained some skepticism over the years about his eventual offensive upside, given his moderate power and low contact rates. His poor start to 2017 isn’t helping the idea that the bat is headed in the right direction. But feedback from friends in the game suggested that his stock within MLB is still pretty high, with multiple reminders that this is a guy who put up +7 WAR at ages 21-22, and he doesn’t need to crush the ball to be an elite player given his defense.

As one friend put it, he’s already pretty close to being Brandon Crawford, and there is still upside for more. And the 30-year-old Brandon Crawford almost made this list despite being making $15 million per year for his decline phase. So a younger, cheaper version with remaining potential is something teams would still love to have, despite his early-season struggles. And it’s why the Cubs, to this point, aren’t making him available, even with an internal replacement in Javier Baez and a glaring need for another starting pitcher.

As for the domestic-violence accusations, which are certainly disturbing, the Aroldis Chapman trade last summer showed there isn’t a lot of evidence that teams are backing away from acquiring talented players because of these problems. While I can wish that weren’t the case, the reality in MLB right now is that acquiring talent still wins out in nearly every decision, and Russell is still a very talented young shortstop. Because this project attempts to measure what MLB is valuing, and not what I’m valuing, Russell still ranks fairly highly here, despite his current on- and off-field issues.

 

[Southsidewentblind]

Southsidewentblind,

Welcome.

Appreciate you jumping in.
the only trade that might have a semblance of working is with Cain. The Cubs do not have what is needed to do the others.

Hey Hey Brett05,
Thank you for welcoming me. #LetsMaketheCubbiesCompete . But okay, Do you think that we need to look for SP with a lower value? Won't that just be a temporary fix and not get us a championship? Our bats are there but you can not depend on them when our SP are struggling. We ended last year's season with team ranks of 1 and 3 for Pitching and Hitting. But we are currently 9 and 20 respectively in comparison to the rest of the league. I'm not sure if getting some sub standard pitchers is what will get us Back to Back titles. You also need to realize that with some of the Pitchers that we are looking for, it doesn't have to be what we have right now, you can offer Players to be named later, future draft picks, or even cash consideration. As a GM, you just need to sit down with who you are considering. As him. "When you think of teams that will always be remember and debated, I always think of the Old Yankees. You know the days when dugouts were filled with dogs that you don't want to give a bone to because you will never get it back. How Championships weren't won but it was who is going to try and stop them next year. And I love Chicago, this is one of America's greatest cities. Even when the wind isn't blowing you can still hear the cheers of a cubs Win. We are loved all across America. I've started to begin building a team that will not let down the debate of the dugout wars. Our players are more than willing to get in the trenches and slug it out to say we are the Champions. We raised our first banner last year in over 108 years in this old town. And you know I care, the commitment of our community is nothing but compassionate. I don't see us having a leader in our rotation. How can we be remembered as more than just remarkable. Dynasties don't let down their debates. We will give you whatever you want but you have to promise us that in return you will do the same for us and don't let us down. This is city that deserves to go down and Iconic. I am willing to offer your team anything and everything that we can to make a reasonable deal, We want you to lead us, but not leave us when it comes time." ----------------- PS Cole is an uncut diamond worth that can not be passed upon and we need to cut to make him a Champ. The Yankees will not be able to do it with him. Our hitting is that much stronger.

You have to motivate and manage to make deals. There are some things that will break the bank but look towards the future. Lackey will be off of the roster next year that is going to drop our Total Salary - $16 million. We are willing to guarantee you $8 million for next years arb. at least. And work towards the next year and see where we will be at when it gets there. The same with Ray, you let him know if he is willing to come to our town. We are willing to give you pre-arbitration guarantees w/ incentives when we look back at the end of the season.

I don't think you realize what these two will bring to us. 26 and 25 year old #1 and #2 starters. Rizzo and Heyward @27, Bryant @ 25, Russell and Candelario @ 23, Happ @ 22, Contreras @ 25, Caratini @ 23. These are guys that will want to stay for at least another decade. But who want to hit under the stress of is he going to blow it again mode. 2 out of 3 wins is 106 win season. I just don't see how you wouldn't bet or sell the farm for these two.

It all about negotiating, you need to look at what you have and want, and what you are willing to go without. Then see what you the other team wants and how we can reach an agreement. Isn't Mike Hazen friends with Theo as well? The last major trade we had with PIT was with Josh Harrison and he is an All Star this year. Let them know we don't want to give you hand me downs for your players, that is bad for our business. I know your player is better than anyone else we could scout and you drafted a really great player. I want to make sure that we are not stiff arming you into a trade. Let me know man to man, what areas are you concerned about.

 

[ZOMBIE@CTESPN]

Q to the Cubs I think Cubs got the right guy based on talent and salary implications. Idk what was traded this is breaking

 

[Diehardfan]

José Quintana to the Cubs in exchange for outfielder Eloy Jiménez, the No. 5 prospect in baseball according to Baseball America’s updated midseason rankings, right-handed pitcher Dylan Cease, first baseman Matt Rose and infielder Bryant Flete.

 

[ZOMBIE@CTESPN]

Nice finally a direction for the white sox instead of signing as many has beens as possible. Kenny Williams is probably finally neutered

 

[Diehardfan]

I guess they still want to make a run this year. I know about Elroy and Cease, nothing about the other two.

Beck?

 

[Parade_Rain]

I guess they still want to make a run this year. I know about Elroy and Cease, nothing about the other two.

Beck?

It isn't just about this year. Q is signed through 2020.

 

[beckdawg]

I guess they still want to make a run this year. I know about Elroy and Cease, nothing about the other two.

Beck?

Rose and Flete are basically nothing. Rose has good body projection but he's not really hit in A+ and isn't really even near the top 30 cubs prospects AFAIK. Plus he plays a corner infield slot where the cubs happen to have 2 pretty good guys. Flete is a 24 year old in A+. That's really all you need to know. I suppose there's an outside chance he ends up like a LeMahieu but even LeMahieu was in AAA by 22. Best case I see on him is utility guy off the bench. Rose is probably the better of the two if his projection comes around but i don't think either are more than bench pieces.

 

[beckdawg]

I'm curious to see where the cubs go from here trade wise. I think Q essentially replaces Arrieta in 2018. That gives you a pretty solid top 3 of Lester Q and Hendricks but I'd like to see them find another higher upside guy to replace Lackey. I still think Montgomery is just better out of the pen. Though now thinking about this I suppose it's not that crazy of an idea to give someone like Tseng a shot at the rotation next year. It'd be a bit risky given he has no track record but could pay dividends.

One of the reasons I really like the Q trade is it effectively makes the rest of your moves easier. I like Q a lot as a pitcher and while i'd probably prefer Archer overall, he's performed like essentially Lester. So the worry of losing Arrieta is rather dramatically less now. You're mainly looking at the #4 and #5 starters. So, if you can get by with someone like Butler and Tseng for a few years then you may have Albertos and De La Cruz ready to make a big impact. Plus Q being as cheap as he is really gives you financial wiggle room.

 

[TL1961]

I'm curious to see where the cubs go from here trade wise. I think Q essentially replaces Arrieta in 2018. That gives you a pretty solid top 3 of Lester Q and Hendricks but I'd like to see them find another higher upside guy to replace Lackey. I still think Montgomery is just better out of the pen. Though now thinking about this I suppose it's not that crazy of an idea to give someone like Tseng a shot at the rotation next year. It'd be a bit risky given he has no track record but could pay dividends.

One of the reasons I really like the Q trade is it effectively makes the rest of your moves easier. I like Q a lot as a pitcher and while i'd probably prefer Archer overall, he's performed like essentially Lester. So the worry of losing Arrieta is rather dramatically less now. You're mainly looking at the #4 and #5 starters. So, if you can get by with someone like Butler and Tseng for a few years then you may have Albertos and De La Cruz ready to make a big impact. Plus Q being as cheap as he is really gives you financial wiggle room.

I think what you say makes sense, but I can't see the Cubs trading away their top prospect, and "getting by". They will be big players in FA for a starter. They are not going to be content not going for it all. This move shows that.

They have been listless, are under .500 at the break, and don't scare anyone with their starters thus far this season.

Now, if Q and the others pitch closer to their potential, they can go into the postseason with a pretty decent staff. Am I putting too much into the acquisition of a guy with an ERA over 4? Maybe.

But then again, the division is there for the taking. There is no way you'll convince me the Brewers' talent is comparable.

Get to the postseason, and they have four starters with the potential for a shutdown performance - or close. It may not match the Dodgers or Nats, but it can be very good. (If allowed to pitch more than 4 innings.)

 

[beckdawg]

I think what you say makes sense, but I can't see the Cubs trading away their top prospect, and "getting by". They will be big players in FA for a starter. They are not going to be content not going for it all. This move shows that.

Eh I mean I could see them signing a short term vet similar to the Lackey move after this season to add competition as well. But more what I was getting at was whether or not they put together another big pacage for a guy who's say a #3 type upside starter with control.

Overall though I think getting Q leaves them in a very interesting position with 3 pretty legit starters in Lester Q and Hendricks. You could probably get by internally with Butler/Montgomery/Tseng/Williams/Mills/whomever as your #5. I think you wanna leave that slot open to develop someone internally. the question is more what do you do with the #4 slot. I'm sort of inclined to believe you either fill it internally also or you sign someone to a 1-2 year deal because this coming offseason isn't amazing in FA pitching. It will be ok but it's nothing l like the giant 2019 FA class.

But I suppose you also have the option if the right trade presents itself to go that way. It might also be interesting to see Arrieta take the QO and bet on himself pitching well enough to earn more later.

 

[Hammer]

One question for Cubs fans...

If you could trade Russell/Baez/Schwarber (one of), Candelario, plus some minors pitcher and spare parts for Fulmer, to solve the rotation for next 2-3 years (Lester, Quintana, Fullmer, Hendricks), would you do it?

And one more thing, what's your opinion, would that type of offer be enough to get Fulmer/Archer/etc. SP types in a trade?

 

[beckdawg]

One question for Cubs fans...

If you could trade Russell/Baez/Schwarber (one of), Candelario, plus some minors pitcher and spare parts for Fulmer, to solve the rotation for next 2-3 years (Lester, Quintana, Fullmer, Hendricks), would you do it?

And one more thing, what's your opinion, would that type of offer be enough to get Fulmer/Archer/etc. SP types in a trade?

No on Russell. He's arguably the most consistent defensive SS in the league and there's still a lot of upside in his bat. I mean he was worth 3 wins at age 21 and 3.9 at age 22. He might not get there this year but with a lot of players you don't even start seeing their peak until 27. He might be a 5-6 win player during his prime.

Hell no on Schwarber. Here's what people need to understand about Schwarber. He hit .334/.432/.619 in the minors. Kris Bryant hit 327/.426/.667 in the minors. Rizzo hit .303/.372/.542 in the minors. That's the kind of bat your talking about. He's arguably a left handed Bryant. Now sure it's the minors but go look up good hitters in the minors. Most aren't going to touch those sort of numbers. And while he hasn't shown that level yet consistently in the majors we've seen glimpse of it. Schwarber has been an absolute monster in the playoffs where you see the best pitching in the league. We've also seen the power in the regular season. He has a .216 ISO this year while hitting .178. That's absurd. Rizzo's ISO is .242 on the year. And the idea of having a Schwarber Bryant Rizzo sandwich for years to come is crazy because all 3 have potential MVP level bats. Schwarber still needs to prove he can play at that level obviously but the talent is there.

Baez I'm not opposed to moving in the right deal. However I'm not sure Baez + Candelario gets you Fulmer or Archer and honestly I personally am not that into Fulmer. His K rate just isn't really enough to warrant putting him in that elite pitching category in my opinion. To me he's more a good #2. Now people in the media aren't going to view him that way because he's got a great ERA but i look at pitchers more by their walk and K rates. He's got a good walk rate but his K rate is worse than Hendricks.

As for what it takes to get an Archer/Fulmer... I'm not sure the cubs have the parts. In my opinion something like Baez/Candelario might get you Daniel Norris. I'm frankly surprise Q went for as little as he did though I have mentioned in the past that he's likely undervalued because he's more like Lester which is a good #2 than a pure ace. Some would argue that Archer is worth more than Sale because of his contract. Sale went for a top 5 prospect and a top 25 prospect as well as a guy in the top 150 range. Realistically that's a really tough trade to make happen. For example the Yankees would have to essentially give up Torres and Frazier. The Sox would have to give up ether Moncada or Eloy and one of Kopech or Luis Roberts or maybe Giolito. Milwalkee would have to give up Ray and Brinson. That's essentially the teams. Maybe Atlanta is in there as well but most teams don't have the sort of prospects to pull that sort of trade off and most teams aren't going to move a MLB piece because if you're trading for Archer you're going for a championship. Fulmer is a little different in my eyes. I think from a pure trade value stand point he's cheaper based on skill but Detroit has really no reason to move him and he's under control for so long.

For what it's worth, I'm not sure Fulmer is a better pitcher than Albertos/De La Cruz. He's obviously doing well at the MLB level but in terms of ceilings he's probably at his where as those two may have higher ceilings. De La Cruz needs to stay healthy so he can quickly progress up the system but we're talking about a guy who's 6'4 200 lbs, who tops out at 97 with good plane, who has a really decent curve and who's struck out 242 guys in 245.1 innings(8.9 k/9) and who's only walked 63 guys(2.3). Albertos has barely thrown but the scouting reports on him suggest he may have 3 plus pitches and he's been almost untouchable in the starts he's had. But long term the cubs have 2 really intriguing options that could be front line guys. Also, I have 0 idea what to make of Michael Rucker. I'm sure if you were to ask a scout they wouldn't put top of the rotation type grades on him but the stats suggest he's better than his tools show. He's got a 10.9 k/9 and a 1.7 bb/9 over 72.1 innings. The scouting reports remind me a bit of someone like Cliff Lee who had ridiculous command but because his pitches weren't amazing was never a big name prospect. And as we've seen with Hendricks guys with stellar command can shock you. Difference here is Rucker also has a huge k rate. And with guys like Hatch, Clifton, Alzolay and maybe guys like Hudson and Steele the cubs have other interesting mid rotation types saying nothing of Little/Lange.

So, the cubs have some options even without trades. And there's still no certainty on what Otnai does. If he comes this winter the cubs are fucked but I suspect he'll wait until he's old enough to be classified a true FA rather than subject to IFA rules. Also, if the cubs can get through 2018 the 2019 class has a bunch of big names in it. If I had to guess, what we will probably see is a short term vet signed to be their #4 starter with Butler/Montgomer/other given a shot as the #5. I'm not entirely sure what I think the cubs will do with baez at this point. I think he's behind Happ at 2B long term but after having acquired Q they aren't as needy for TOR pitching. I suppose if the right deal comes around you could pull together something but we've seen how long it took them to get someone like Q.

 

[beckdawg]

Also out of curiosity I looked through teams I thought might make some sense in a Baez trade for pitching. I've brought up Norris for Baez/Candelario before so I'll ignore that this time. Best match in my eyes might be with Baltimore. They are going no where and are 4 games under .500. O's SS this year are hitting .236/.306/.281 and while Ryan Mountcastle is listed as a SS most don't think he sticks there and even if he does he's in A+. Milton Ramos their #18 prospect has absolutely no power and a below average hit tool at SS but a good glove. Irving Ortega #22 is a similar story. JJ Hardy is 34 and has a $14M 2018 vesting option with a $2M buyout. So the obvious need at SS is pretty evident. You could argue maybe you move Machado to SS but he's so good at 3B it's probably not worth it. They have Dylan Bundy(#4 pick in the 2011 draft) and Kevin Gausman who are interesting. My gut feeling is Baez is worth more than those two at the moment but they are both young and have talent.

The braves also sorta make sense. Brandon Phillips isn't a long term solution at 2B. Swanson should be fine long term at SS. 3B for them is also a bit of a question until Maitan is ready in 3-4 years. They have far too many possible pitchers to even mention so I'm not going to list them all. But the also have Ozzie Albies who's fairly well regard for 2B. and I'm not sure would be that interested in Baez overall. The seem more intent on landing their on big name starter.

The Blue Jays could probably use Baez at 2B or SS. Tulow has trouble staying healthy. Richard Urena and Bo Bichette are fairly well regarded. And I think you'd have to start talking on Sanchez to even be interesting. Stroman is too small in my books.

Minny if they deal Dozier could be interesting. Nick Gordon is well regarded at SS in AA. Jorge Polanco was also at one time but he hasn't hit in the majors. If they wanted to talk on someone like Jose Berrios that would be very interesting. But again I doubt they do.