inchibearfan
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Thats why I dont think it would be difficult for a rookie to replace what Fields did in 2023.
Bust
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so 1 win improvement moving to a generational once every 10 year qb? #OUCH
!!!!#BUST!!!!
inchibearfan
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The Bears have not had a QB throw for 3,000 yards or more since 2019--Mitch Trubisky. That is pretty pathetic.
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It's a problem with running QBs unless they slide early. He's such a dynamic runner that defenders are in full on dives like for a RB at him before it's obvious he's sliding. Makes it even worse looking because guys that may have just grazed him, catchup sometimes when he slides late. Refs see it as the defenders have already committed and Fields isn't really giving up enough yards for protection.
That said he got some questionable hits but he also didn't duck and cover much. His head stays up a lot.
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Mahomes only won 1 game his 1st year.
Burrow was 2-7.
Justin Herbert was 6-9.
Way too many variables but I would personally like to se 9-8 or better. Difference is that I wouldn't weight his success potential on it.
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legendxofxlink
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Russell Wilson rookie year numbers should be what he strives for.
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I would say leading the team to a playoff win
Bust
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Eberflus needs to do his job and sell it and stick up for Fields when those non calls happen. He should be up in the refs grill.
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If the Bears don't make the playoffs regardless of Williams or Fields at the helm...its a fail....
And if you are using a 1 on Williams, he damn sure had better be an improvement over Fields....that's a lot of capital to spend.
And if you are using a 1 on Williams, he damn sure had better be an improvement over Fields....that's a lot of capital to spend.
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WOW, so much expectation of a rookie by those that want to give Fields more time to achieve those same goals after 3 years.
DeerBrinker34
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Just going off the Fields Fanatics formula.
Les Grossman
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Ugh, I really don’t like jumping to conclusions. Perhaps we revisit this on draft day?
DefNextYear
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If someone really cared about seeing a dart thrown on the board, anyone could muster up some random numbers. Inherently, people are going to lean on the lower side if they're writing numbers and have receipts out there. It's going to be in the range of 3300 yards, 20 TDs, and maybe a nice chunk of ints to go along... say 14. I'd say that's somewhere around what I'd like to see. Is it a success? I dunno... just what I want to see for a rookie taken No. 1 overall with all things considered... obviously assuming 17 games.
The issue though becomes the designation between success and failure... there's a place in-between that's just ok. Maybe in a literal sense, it is... maybe? Whatever... but plus or minus some margin on those isn't going to keep me up at night. And ultimately, anyone is really going to be judged by wins and losses, however unfair anyone would claim that is. If the team is winning, people aren't going to come in here and complain about how many yards he threw for (well, some might). The reverse will be partially true as well given the sensitivity to this debate. If the Bears are losing, it'll come up even if he's putting up averages of those numbers above. Every game... season... there's these defining moments that people will hamper on. It might be a key loss, key drop, yada yada... stats don't always transcend that anyway.
This all said, I don't think like the way people are being asked to think... or I see suggested in a lot of chats. While I think this team is good enough to be in the playoffs, I'm willing to be patient if I believe the prize at the end is better. That said, I'm not a "make the playoffs or else" person. Playoffs are a low bar (which we pathetically miss a lot). I don't care for low bars. I want to at least be mentioned as a real contender. I want to play in NFC championship games. I realize getting there means I need to make the playoffs first... but making the playoffs just to get curb-stomped isn't the definition of success to me. Making the playoffs is nice. I'll be happy, don't get me wrong... it's a stepping stone. But I am trying to see multiple years out. I won't put a floor on this season's results at the expense of future seasons if those future seasons could have a higher ceiling. So that said, I don't look for any specific metric other than how the team performs. If we're not doing well, then I start to look at the numbers to try to explain why. But I will not be nitpicking every fine detail of everything if the team on the field generally looks the part. I get nitpicky when negative trends happen.
The issue though becomes the designation between success and failure... there's a place in-between that's just ok. Maybe in a literal sense, it is... maybe? Whatever... but plus or minus some margin on those isn't going to keep me up at night. And ultimately, anyone is really going to be judged by wins and losses, however unfair anyone would claim that is. If the team is winning, people aren't going to come in here and complain about how many yards he threw for (well, some might). The reverse will be partially true as well given the sensitivity to this debate. If the Bears are losing, it'll come up even if he's putting up averages of those numbers above. Every game... season... there's these defining moments that people will hamper on. It might be a key loss, key drop, yada yada... stats don't always transcend that anyway.
This all said, I don't think like the way people are being asked to think... or I see suggested in a lot of chats. While I think this team is good enough to be in the playoffs, I'm willing to be patient if I believe the prize at the end is better. That said, I'm not a "make the playoffs or else" person. Playoffs are a low bar (which we pathetically miss a lot). I don't care for low bars. I want to at least be mentioned as a real contender. I want to play in NFC championship games. I realize getting there means I need to make the playoffs first... but making the playoffs just to get curb-stomped isn't the definition of success to me. Making the playoffs is nice. I'll be happy, don't get me wrong... it's a stepping stone. But I am trying to see multiple years out. I won't put a floor on this season's results at the expense of future seasons if those future seasons could have a higher ceiling. So that said, I don't look for any specific metric other than how the team performs. If we're not doing well, then I start to look at the numbers to try to explain why. But I will not be nitpicking every fine detail of everything if the team on the field generally looks the part. I get nitpicky when negative trends happen.
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Toast88
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I'll say the same thing I said before Fields' rookie season. I have no set expectations, per se, other than that the rookie QB shouldn't look lost, and will hopefully looks like he belongs in the NFL by the end of the year. We will be able to look at the performances and tell whether he looks completely overmatched or not.
Going into Fields' second year, I said I wanted to start seeing semi-regular progress, better processing, increased readability of the defense, quicker identification of the open receiver. Going into his third year, I said I wanted to see all of that, plus more consistency and the ability to string together multiple games that look like they were run by a good NFL quarterback.
I'll hold Williams to the same standard. By the end of his rookie year, I want it to look like he belongs, that he's not overmatched by the pro game. In his second year, we should see incremental-to-gradual improvements on the things quarterbacks need to do to survive in the NFL. Beyond that, we'll see where it goes.
That said, I think it's fair to say, well, if you're moving on from Justin Fields, you need more. You need higher expectations out of the gate. You need him to be better than Fields, and fairly quickly. Long term, I disagree. But short term---Yeah, I think that's fair. I think it's also a pretty low bar that Williams will probably surpass. We'll see.
Going into Fields' second year, I said I wanted to start seeing semi-regular progress, better processing, increased readability of the defense, quicker identification of the open receiver. Going into his third year, I said I wanted to see all of that, plus more consistency and the ability to string together multiple games that look like they were run by a good NFL quarterback.
I'll hold Williams to the same standard. By the end of his rookie year, I want it to look like he belongs, that he's not overmatched by the pro game. In his second year, we should see incremental-to-gradual improvements on the things quarterbacks need to do to survive in the NFL. Beyond that, we'll see where it goes.
That said, I think it's fair to say, well, if you're moving on from Justin Fields, you need more. You need higher expectations out of the gate. You need him to be better than Fields, and fairly quickly. Long term, I disagree. But short term---Yeah, I think that's fair. I think it's also a pretty low bar that Williams will probably surpass. We'll see.
Neckbeard
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Fields produced 247yards/game in 2023. If CW is truely generational, that should be the floor right? 4200 yards (total yards, I'm sure he'd have some rushing yards). 20-25 TDs, ~15 Ints as he learns what he can do, if we're going to put stats to it.
If not, I'm not sure we gain a ton by starting over if a trade down gives 2 1s, 2 2s, or something thereabouts.
If not, I'm not sure we gain a ton by starting over if a trade down gives 2 1s, 2 2s, or something thereabouts.
DB012031
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I don't think the Bears should draft Williams at all. I didn't like him much at OU and not at all at USC but that's just my opinion. But if the Bears did draft him, then the following has to happen:
The Bears were not that far off. Dont fuck up against the Lions in their first game and Denver and the Bears are in the playoffs. That is how close they were. They cannot take a step back, even with a new QB.
- His numbers should be on-par with or near that of CJ Stroud this past season. Williams would be coming into a team with a pretty solid defense (when healthy) and a legit #1 WR and #1 TE. He should be somewhere between 3700-4100 yards and 22-25 TD's.
- He should be taking the Bears to the playoffs. We were a 7 win team and we lost 6 games by 1 possession, and in 5 of those games we BLEW 10+ point leads in the 4th quarter. We should win 10 games next season.
The Bears were not that far off. Dont fuck up against the Lions in their first game and Denver and the Bears are in the playoffs. That is how close they were. They cannot take a step back, even with a new QB.
clenbuterol_clint
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i dont care about stats. i just hope he doesn't show up on tmz with a boyfriend. That would be a bad season for me and @dentfan both am i right brother?
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But didn't hold JF1 to that same standard? Right..
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DB012031
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I didn't say a think about Fields, that wasn't the question that was posed. The question posed was expectations for Caleb Williams, not Justin Fields. So what is the point of your comment? This entire chain has nothing to do with Justin Fields.
Justin Fields also didn't come into the league as "the best QB since Andrew Luck" moniker that many are saying about Williams. Fields was always a highly talented project coming from Ohio State. Based on the media reports and many "experts" Williams is supposed to be the next coming of Jesus. So yeah, if he is supposed to be that good, then fuck yes he should accomplish what I said in my previous post. If people are saying he is the next Patrick Mahomes but with a stronger arm, then he absolutely better put up 4K yards and 25+ TDs. That should be the floor for him. NO ONE said that about Fields coming out of college, not a single person said he was the next big thing. They all said he was highly talented but had alot of issues he needed to clean up.
Personally, I am a Justin Fields fan and I would rather we keep him and get multiple picks to shore up the remaining holes on our team. I don't believe that Fields has been put in the best position to succeed as his OC's have been shit, BUT, Fields also has to improve in spite of his shit coaching.
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