What does a successful rookie year look like for Caleb Williams?

[modo]

Well no one knows what a team is willing to even give to move up, what the bears are asking or whether a team even wants to in the first place. This isn't a move up and get your guy and hope he's the one situation. You take the QB and you're not wasting other capital moving up for him and can still upgrade the team

The original subject here is should Williams be criticized if he doesn't play well. and his reasonable expectations.

You take Williams if you feel that it is going to improve the QB play significantly. If it doesn't, then criticizing him is fair game.

If Williams plays worse, you've given up what you could have gotten for trading out of the spot and using the pick on, say MHj, and still had Fields.

If you draft Williams, he had better be an improvement on Fields. that is not an unreasonable expectation.

 

[Toast88]

I believe the expectation is that you are using a shit ton of draft capital on a guy and if he performs worse than the previous QB which you already had, there is an issue.

The Bears are expected to be an improved team next year regardless of who the QB is. The expectation is playoffs considering they were in the hunt in December....

If Williams, who you spent big draft capital on, does not perform well, I think its pretty reasonable to question the draft choice.

Are the Bears spending big draft capital on Caleb Williams?

I seem to remember the Bears spending 2 firsts + on Justin Fields.

 

[modo]

Are the Bears spending big draft capital on Caleb Williams?

I seem to remember the Bears spending 2 firsts + on Justin Fields.

What do you think the 1st overall is worth?

 

[truthbedamned]

100 percent this.

As much as I hope they don’t resort to this, you can already see the Fields-lovers laying the groundwork to undercut a rookie QB because they’re angry the Bears moved on from Fields.

They’re going to be watching rookie Caleb Williams with a much more critical eye than the people they’re accusing of being unfair to Fields did in Fields’ rookie year.

And we will be watching and reading the CW Cult (you) making excuse after excuse if he shits the bed.

 

[truthbedamned]

The original subject here is should Williams be criticized if he doesn't play well. and his reasonable expectations.

You take Williams if you feel that it is going to improve the QB play significantly. If it doesn't, then criticizing him is fair game.

If Williams plays worse, you've given up what you could have gotten for trading out of the spot and using the pick on, say MHj, and still had Fields.

If you draft Williams, he had better be an improvement on Fields. that is not an unreasonable expectation.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

 

[KittiesKorner]

Um. Duh?

 

[Toast88]

And we will be watching and reading the CW Cult (you) making excuse after excuse if he shits the bed.

Well, I’ll tell you what. If after 3 years, Caleb Williams is statistically one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league and I’m still making excuses, feel free to criticize me to your heart’s content.

 

[Toast88]

What do you think the 1st overall is worth?

But it’s not costing them anything. They already have it. In fact, they received it in addition to Darnell Wright & DJ Moore. This #1 pick is house money, man.

 

[modo]

But it’s not costing them anything. They already have it. In fact, they received it in addition to Darnell Wright & DJ Moore. This #1 pick is house money, man.

Then why would any team trade down?

If the Bears intend on drafting MHj they would just draft him at one? Or would they trade down and get more and still get MHj?

 

[Les Grossman]

But it’s not costing them anything. They already have it. In fact, they received it in addition to Darnell Wright & DJ Moore. This #1 pick is house money, man.

People don’t seem to realize this enough.

 

[truthbedamned]

Well, I’ll tell you what. If after 3 years, Caleb Williams is statistically one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league and I’m still making excuses, feel free to criticize me to your heart’s content.

So your expectation is CW takes the Bears to the playoffs next year? That is the expectation of JF. Or you get two years of excuses even though CW would be joining a team that is 1000% percent different than JF joined.

That is the argument the CW cult is using. He should be given the same time as JF which is just pure horseshit.

 

[SugarWalls]

Remember when the offense completely stalled out and lost the Denver and lions game. I guess that’s all on getsy and the fact the bears only have dj moore and not dj moore plus generational future hofer MH jr.

 

[didshereallysaythat]

Do the Fields supporters think this year is a Super Bowl or bust year? Why the fuck is making the playoffs some grand achievement that has to occur with Williams?

What matters is his ceiling. If Williams plays average this year and the Bears miss the playoffs and then he becomes a top 5 QB for the next decade, no one is going to care that the Bears missed out on the playoffs in 2024.

 

[Toast88]

Do the Fields supporters think this year is a Super Bowl or bust year? Why the fuck is making the playoffs some grand achievement that has to occur with Williams?

What matters is his ceiling. If Williams plays average this year and the Bears miss the playoffs and then he becomes a top 5 QB for the next decade, no one is going to care that the Bears missed out on the playoffs in 2024.

Exactly.

You can just tell when your QB is the guy, even if your team doesn’t make the playoffs. And Fields ain’t it.

Remember when Burrow had a pretty damn pedestrian 89 rating & 2-7 record and got sacked like a mofo during his rookie year? But guess what? Cincy fans weren’t sweating it, because they could tell they *finally* got their star QB. Everyone could tell. And ever since then, it’s been apparent.

I’m not excluding the possibility that Williams comes in and almost immediately lights it up and the Bears make the playoffs. But you can clearly see the anti-Williams people are pounding the high expectation game so they can point and say “I told you so” later during regular rookie QB struggles, which is honestly pretty damn childish and dishonest.

 

[didshereallysaythat]

Exactly.

You can just tell when your QB is the guy, even if your team doesn’t make the playoffs. And Fields ain’t it.

Remember when Burrow had a pretty damn pedestrian 89 rating & 2-7 record and got sacked like a mofo during his rookie year? But guess what? Cincy fans weren’t sweating it, because they could tell they *finally* got their star QB. Everyone could tell. And ever since then, it’s been apparent.

I’m not excluding the possibility that Williams comes in and almost immediately lights it up and the Bears make the playoffs. But you can clearly see the anti-Williams people are pounding the high expectation game so they can point and say “I told you so” later during regular rookie QB struggles, which is honestly pretty damn childish and dishonest.

I think Williams will be better as a rookie than Fields in year 4. But if there is ever a year where Fields could possibly be better, it would be this one just because rookies tend to struggle at least to some degree. If that happens, there will absolutely be 10-15 people here that are pounding the table for everyone to be fired even if the Bears go like 9-8 and just miss the playoffs.

 

[truthbedamned]

I think Williams will be better as a rookie than Fields in year 4. But if there is ever a year where Fields could possibly be better, it would be this one just because rookies tend to struggle at least to some degree. If that happens, there will absolutely be 10-15 people here that are pounding the table for everyone to be fired even if the Bears go like 9-8 and just miss the playoffs.

As they should. CW doesn't get a few years to develop. You aren't giving Fields anymore rope despite the SHIT he has been given in his first three years.
Step the fuck up dude. No more crying in your mommas gigantic bosom.

 

[didshereallysaythat]

As they should. CW doesn't get a few years to develop. You aren't giving Fields anymore rope despite the SHIT he has been given in his first three years.
Step the fuck up dude. No more crying in your mommas gigantic bosom.

They are not going to fire coaches who have a winning record with a rookie QB.

 

[Yogi]

For the last 11 1st overall QBs since JaMarcus Russell, the average production across all in their rookie seasons has been 233.7 passing yards/game and 1.2 passing TDs/game.

So if he plays all 17, the over/under for "average" 1st overall production per game would mean around 3,900 yards and 20 TDs for the season.

And that's also in line with the 6 that started every game their rookie years (Bradford, Newton, Luck, Winston, Murray, Lawrence), who averaged 3,890 yards and 19 TDs between them.

5 of the 11 didn't play every game their rookie years due to injuries and other factors (Stafford, Goff, Mayfield, Burrow, Young), so the actual season total averages obviously drop a bit, and put the bar at 3,272 yards and 17 TDs.

So for all that, I'd put my ranges as:

Over 3,900 yards and 20 TDs --> most likely feeling like Houston fans with Stroud
Between 3,200 and 3,900 yards and/or under 20 TDs --> good start to build on unless there are any glaring concerns
Under 3,200 yards and 17 TDs --> needs evaluation (injury? bigger concerns?)

Along with some additional weight from factors like the Bears being better than the typical team picking 1st overall and how well the team is playing in general throughout the season, that's probably where my mind will be on it.

 

[Lurk McGurk]

Exactly.

You can just tell when your QB is the guy, even if your team doesn’t make the playoffs. And Fields ain’t it.

Remember when Burrow had a pretty damn pedestrian 89 rating & 2-7 record and got sacked like a mofo during his rookie year? But guess what? Cincy fans weren’t sweating it, because they could tell they *finally* got their star QB. Everyone could tell. And ever since then, it’s been apparent.

I’m not excluding the possibility that Williams comes in and almost immediately lights it up and the Bears make the playoffs. But you can clearly see the anti-Williams people are pounding the high expectation game so they can point and say “I told you so” later during regular rookie QB struggles, which is honestly pretty damn childish and dishonest.

I remember betting against Cincy a couple times in Burrow's rookie season, and yeah, you could see it. I told a buddy of mine right away that he was the real deal, but he absolutely did have some lowlights that year.

As this has become clearer that the Bears are moving on from Fields, the emotions are at a 12 out of 10. It's been pretty ramped up for a while now, but it's really peaking right now. I'm seeing what you're seeing too. The groundwork is being laid to treat Caleb as a failure for not meeting expectations, it's obvious.

It's confusing because I would think we all would want what's best for the Bears, but it really seems like there's going to be a lot of fans actively rooting against Caleb. Another disappointing thing is that while I've just been a reader and not a poster here for a long time, there's quite a few guys on here that I really valued their insights and thoughts, that have now gone off the rails with this.

The good news is that the more I'm learning about Caleb, the more convinced I am that he's going to be the real deal too. I'm starting to think all of this animus and criticism may end up lighting an even bigger fire under him. It's gonna be fun.

 

[Spitta Andretti]

Then why would any team trade down?

If the Bears intend on drafting MHj they would just draft him at one? Or would they trade down and get more and still get MHj?

Who said the Bears intend on drafting MHJR? If anything, it looks like they intend to draft a Quarterback

Remember when the offense completely stalled out and lost the Denver and lions game. I guess that’s all on getsy and the fact the bears only have dj moore and not dj moore plus generational future hofer MH jr.

Remember when the defense got like 4 turnovers and the Bears offense had like 3 points off of them?