You can’t use stats to determine who is going to be the better head coach. You can use that to determine who is the best coordinator. Head coach is about being a leader, and hiring the right staff. Then balancing your team with your business.
Pat Shurmur was a bad head coach, 10-23. He won’t crash and burn your organization, reminds me a lot of Dick Jauron. Safe, but nothing to write home about. The typical Bears hire.
Josh Mcdaniels was a disaster as head coach. Huge risk, probably not worth it. His players did say they were never more prepared, but also never had fun. He was horrible with the business side. He was young, but can a person really change? Could be a super bowl winner or completely destroy your franchise.
Defillipo - complete unknown, is he the next McVay or mcdaniels? Odds are neither somewhere in between.
Nagy - see DeFilippo.
The reality is this years candidates are bad, no clear answer in the bunch. We need a miracle and to get lucky, we are for sure due for that. Wish we looked last year for a coach.